With the Ontario Progressive Conservatives having won back-to-back majority governments in 2018 and 2022, you may find it hard to believe that there was a time when the party failed to win a single seat in Toronto for four straight general elections.
Yes, you read that correctly. In the general elections of 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2014, no PC candidate in the entire 416 was able to win a seat.
But there was one momentary breakthrough, which the party had hoped would be the start of something big. Toronto city councillor Doug Holyday won a byelection for the Tories in Etobicoke–Lakeshore in 2013. But nine months later in the general election, the Liberals recaptured the seat, and Holyday was out. The PC rebirth in the capital city would have to wait another four years.
I raise this story because the Green party is desperately hoping the same scenario will not play out in the city of Kitchener.
Fifteen months ago, in the riding of Kitchener Centre, the Greens won just their second-ever seat in Ontario history, during a byelection. But it took a perfect confluence of events to make that happen. First, it was an open seat. There was no former sitting member contesting it and having that advantage. Second, Green candidate Aislinn Clancy was a popular, well-known city councillor. Third, Green leader Mike Schreiner’s riding of Guelph was almost right next door, so awareness of the party was high. And fourth, because it was a byelection, resources from all over the country could be brought to bear in Kitchener, and they were. The result was a stunning 5,000-vote victory for Clancy, as she garnered almost half the vote.
“The Greens showed lots of solidarity during the byelection,” Clancy told me in a phone conversation last week, taking a short break while on the hustings. “We got a lot of attention.”
But Clancy acknowledges that now comes the hard part. The Greens can’t pour all their resources into just holding her riding, because they’re contesting all 124 ridings now. And because of Premier Doug Ford’s snap election call, there’s been very little time to campaign, compared to during the byelection.
“But we’ve built a machine here,” Clancy insists, no doubt because this is her third election in three years (she ran for city council in 2022 as well). She says she started organizing her re-election campaign last summer.
“But I’m not going to lie, Steve,” she adds. “It’s cold out here!”
Furthermore, Clancy knows a couple of her opponents relatively well from seeing them at local events. The main challenger will likely be the New Democratic Party’s Brooklin Wallis, a community activist with whom Clancy once served on a committee. The NDP won the seat in 2018 and 2022. Meanwhile, Waterloo regional councillor Colleen James is the Liberal opponent.
“They are lovely humans,” Clancy says of her challengers. When I point out that I haven’t heard many former MPPs describe their opponents that way, Clancy responds, “This is what people expect here — to be respectful and gracious.” (The Tories haven’t won the riding in more than 25 years. Rob Elliott is their candidate this time. He lives in Keswick, 160 kilometres away.)
Aislinn Clancy with Green leader Mike Schreiner at her November 2023 swearing-in ceremony as MPP for Kitchener Centre. (Steve Paikin)
Clancy says the most frequent complaint she hears at the doors is the issue of affordability. Property-tax increases, renovictions, a doubling of homelessness, and no rent controls on new apartment buildings in downtown Kitchener all come up. She says she knows the riding well enough that she meets people whose doors she knocked on months ago and is able to update them on concerns that were raised then.
“People like to see that we remember their experiences and that I followed through on the things I made a commitment to do,” she says.
Schreiner has visited the riding eight times this year, something Clancy appreciates. “People love him,” she says. “He always gets a great reception. He really pumps the tires.”
Since the Greens began running candidates 40 years ago, the party has won only one seat in a general election: Schreiner’s in 2018 and 2022. Clancy hopes to make history by becoming just the second Green candidate to claim a general-election victory.
(This is the third in a series of four candidate profiles. To read about the PCs’ Brian Saunderson, click here. To read about the Liberals’ Stephanie Smyth, click here. The NDP’s Catherine McKenney is next.)