Doug Ford is asking Ontario’s voters for a new mandate while touting his record of economic success. But how has the province’s economy fared under the Progressive Conservatives? Assessing progress is complicated. Since taking office in 2018, the Ford government has dealt with the first Donald Trump presidency, a global pandemic, the subsequent affordability crisis, and an unprecedented surge in population.
The bottom line is that the economy has grown under Ford according to the most common metrics — but not in a way that has felt particularly prosperous for many Ontarians. Let’s work through those indicators.
Real GDP has risen approximately 11 per cent from mid-2018 to the third quarter of 2024. However, the pace of progress falls well short of the McGuinty-Wynne Liberals or the Harris-Eves Tory years. Ford’s tenure marks the slowest economic growth period of any Ontario government on record — even that of the recession-battered Rae NDP government. This is thanks to those extraordinary global and domestic challenges and the ongoing trend among all advanced economies towards lower growth.
More concerning is the per capita picture. Real GDP per capita is lower than in 2018, a rare outcome over such a long period. Every previous government — NDP, Progressive Conservative, or Liberal — presided over per capita GDP gains. The province’s rapid population growth, particularly in the past two years, has outpaced economic expansion, leading to a sense of stagnation.
There are lots of new jobs: more than 1 million net new jobs have been added since Ford took office, a figure comparable to the Harris-Eves era. However, the province's working-age population has grown by 1.8 million over the same period, and the labour force has expanded by 1.3 million. As a result, there are 232,000 more unemployed Ontarians than there were in June 2018. The unemployment rate is significantly higher than when Ford took office — the highest (excluding the COVID-19 period) since mid-2014. Again, there are positive trends, but pain in many of the province’s households.
Speaking of. The Ford government has prioritized affordability, delivering nearly $12 billion in cost-of-living relief to Ontario households in 2024-25 alone. After-tax household incomes have seen modest gains in real terms thanks to federal and provincial government tax cuts and transfer increases. That is crucial because market-based incomes have barely budged since 2018. The suite of policies to improve affordability have come with a heavy cost to government finances, and the province likely remains the most indebted sub-national government in the world.
Poverty rates, which improved during the pandemic due to extraordinary federal support, have since reverted to pre-pandemic levels. The preliminary 2023 poverty rate of 11.5 per cent was comparable to the 11.8 per cent recorded in 2018. With Ontario Works payments frozen at 2018 levels and record food bank usage, early indicators suggest further deterioration in 2024.
Despite billions in tax cuts and incentives, business investment remains sluggish, hampered by pandemic disruptions and higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the province’s much-touted infrastructure push has struggled to deliver. Government capital expenditures, when adjusted for inflation, are slightly lower than in 2018, meaning that despite greater spending, Ontarians are getting a little bit less built for their tax dollars.
The Ford government has made housing a priority, but affordability continues to worsen. The goal of building 1.5 million homes feels further than ever. Ontario families are having an increasingly difficult time affording a home. Even renting has become more expensive. By October 2024, average rent in Ontario had soared to $1,666 per month, up dramatically from $1,203 in 2018 and outpacing income growth. The government has leaned into housing affordability (much like its Liberal predecessors) only to see conditions deteriorate further.
So where are we?
Doug Ford's economic record is one of growth surpassed by the rapid expansion of the population. Lots of new jobs but unemployment is up. Affordability initiatives have helped, but housing costs remain a challenge. The government remains heavily in debt. Business investment has been lackluster, and infrastructure spending has struggled to keep pace with rising costs. This should not be considered an indictment of the Ford government’s economic agenda. The province has been hampered by global forces and shaped by past government policy decisions.
The Ford government has positioned itself as the champion of affordability, and in some respects, it has delivered. Yet for many Ontarians, economic growth has felt elusive. As the province heads to the polls, the question remains: Will voters see Ford's record as a success? Or as a survival story in turbulent times?
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