1. Politics
  2. Analysis

ANALYSIS: Is the Ontario Liberal leadership race poised for an upset?

The last two leaders were experienced politicos. But there’s at least an outside chance members may be ready for something different
Written by Steve Paikin
Eric Lombardi is the founder and president of More Neighbours Toronto, a housing-advocacy group dedicated to ending Ontario’s housing crisis. (Steve Paikin)

“I’m angry.”

Ask Eric Lombardi why he’s thinking about running for the Ontario Liberal leadership, and that’s the answer you’ll get. In fact, when we got together last week, he repeated it, with added emphasis:

“I’m really angry.”

Under normal circumstances, a guy like Eric Lombardi probably wouldn’t get a passing glance for leader of a party that’s been around for nearly 159 years and won 17 out of 44 elections since Confederation.

But these aren’t normal circumstances. The Liberals have come third in the seat count for three consecutive elections — that’s never happened before. And the fact that three experienced politicians (Kathleen Wynne, Steven Del Duca, and Bonnie Crombie) have led the party to those outcomes makes a guy like Lombardi think he may have a shot at something he normally wouldn’t.

At the moment, the race for Liberal leader technically hasn’t started yet. The party brass are in the midst of discussing how long the campaign should be and what the rules and candidate criteria are, so nobody has yet confirmed that they’re in the race.

Which is why a bunch of folks — Lombardi almost certainly included — are preparing to announce that they’re intending to set up leadership exploratory committees. Until the starter’s pistol has been fired by the party’s executive, that’s all prospective candidates can do.

Which is why you’ll hear Lombardi say things like this: people are “tired of politics defined by division, sloppy populism, and short-term thinking. There is a growing desire for seriousness, competence, and optimism — leadership focused on restoring confidence in the future.”

So who is Eric Lombardi? Well, let’s start with this: if you’re a millennial, as opposed to a Gen X-er or a baby boomer, you’re much more likely to know his name, because he’s been one of the more thoughtful voices out there, pushing governments to come up with more ambitious solutions on housing. He’s the 31-year-old founder and president of More Neighbours Toronto, a housing-advocacy group made up of volunteers dedicated to ending Ontario’s housing crisis. He’s also volunteer chair of Build Toronto, the local affiliate of Build Canada, which also promotes solutions on housing, transit, and economic growth.

Liberals have a difficult choice to make in terms of balancing candidate qualities. Because their past two leaders have failed to win a seat during their general elections (Del Duca in 2022 and Crombie in 2025), current Liberal MPPs vying for the leadership are pointing out the fact that having a seat is a big plus for them. You certainly hear that from supporters of Stephanie Bowman (Don Valley West), Lee Fairclough (Etobicoke–Lakeshore), and Rob Cerjanec (Ajax). But the presumed front-runner, Nate Erskine-Smith who was second-place finisher last time, doesn’t have a seat. (Well, he does, but it’s in the wrong legislature. He’s an MP representing Beaches–East York in the House of Commons.)

Others who don’t have a seat at Queen’s Park are also considering bids because the bar to entry hasn’t been this low in decades. They include doctors Danielle Martin and Andrew Boozary and former backroom party official Mike Crawley (to be clear, not the CBC reporter of the same name).

While established MPPs may have seats, they haven’t exactly set the world on fire in terms of profile.  Bowman and Fairclough have just over 3,000 followers on X. Boozary has almost 44,000. Erskine-Smith has 24,000. Martin has 14,000. Lombardi’s got nearly 13,000. If social media becomes an increasingly important tool in the campaign, the MPPs would appear to be at a decided disadvantage.

Could Lombardi, a policy wonk who has none of Premier Doug Ford’s easygoing people skills, actually win the Liberal leadership? I mean, you’d have to think the odds are hugely stacked against it. Until you remember that David Peterson, who became Ontario’s 20th premier, first ran for the leadership in 1976 at age 32. True, he came second that year, but he won the next time out, in 1982.

Lombardi knows he likely has little support among older, established party members. But he also understands that there are dozens of dormant Liberal campus associations at colleges and universities all over Ontario and that those associations could get special bonus status in a leadership election if the party brass follows the same rules as last time. Could Lombardi’s campaign, stoked by generational anger, inspire enough young people to sign up and back his bid?

That’s the plan. Now we watch to see if the universe unfolds the way Lombardi hopes.