Nate Erskine-Smith, the federal Liberal MP for Beaches—East York, is running to be the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. Of course, that’s not official yet, in part because officially the Liberal leadership race hasn’t started yet, but Erskine-Smith’s leadership ambitions have been one of the worst-kept secrets in Ontario politics since well before Bonnie Crombie scored the underwhelming 57 per cent support of members at her party’s conference last fall.
Erskine-Smith is, by anyone’s definition, a good politician: he’s won his seat in multiple federal elections; ascended to Justin Trudeau’s cabinet; and even made a strong showing in the 2023 contest for the provincial Liberal leadership (where Crombie eventually prevailed). These are real, substantial accomplishments that he’s used to build a strong network of support for another leadership bid, now that the job is open again.
But in politics, it’s not enough to be good; you have to be lucky. Perhaps nobody embodies this as much as the current premier, who in the span of a few weeks in early 2018 went from mulling a longshot bid to challenge John Tory in a Toronto mayoral race to being the presumptive next premier of Ontario when then-PC leader Patrick Brown was unceremoniously turfed and Ford won the ensuing leadership campaign.
Erskine-Smith hasn’t been that fortunate yet, but this week is undeniably a gift of sorts for him. The sudden resignation of NDP MPP Doly Begum has opened up a provincial seat in Scarborough Southwest, directly adjacent to Erskine-Smith’s riding. The federal MP wasted no time in declaring that, when a byelection is called, he’ll resign his federal post and run to be the Liberal candidate (more on that in a second). Erskine-Smith faced pointed criticism from within the provincial party last year for, as some saw it, treating provincial politics as a kind of consolation prize for his thwarted federal ambitions. He’s at least partially answering those criticisms by launching this new phase with the words: “I’m all in.”
If Erskine-Smith were to win a seat, it would also answer to one of the questions that’s going to be asked about any potential aspirant to the Liberal leadership: how important is it for the next leader to have a seat at Queen’s Park? Twice now, with Steven Del Duca and Bonnie Crombie, the leaders chosen by the party have not had a seat in the legislature — the party has told itself all sorts of soothing tales about how it’s not actually that important, most of the leader’s important work happens outside of Queen’s Park anyway.
Then, after the election dust settled in both 2022 and 2025, the Liberals looked around at disappointing returns only to realize that their leader might have needed a seat in the Chamber after all.
If Erskine-Smith wins a byelection, he likely wouldn’t be the only Liberal leadership candidate with a seat: MPPs like Adil Shamji, Lee Fairclough, and Rob Cerjanec are all rumoured as potential candidates. But Erskine-Smith would have both a seat as well as a large and energetic existing base of support, while others would be starting with smaller constituencies. This is no guarantee of success or failure on anyone’s part: Dalton McGuinty was in fourth place when the 1996 leadership vote started. Still, you’d rather have Erskine-Smith’s base of support if possible.
There are a handful of hurdles Erskine-Smith needs to clear, of course. The first is that Doug Ford needs to call the byelection, something he can theoretically drag out until after the August long weekend. The timing of the byelection will undoubtedly be chosen to maximize the advantage for the PC Party candidate, whomever that ends up being. Erskine-Smith also needs to secure the Liberal party’s nomination, and the party’s previous candidate in Scarborough Southwest, Qadira Jackson, isn’t meekly stepping aside.
“The Ontario Liberal Party needs a candidate in Scarborough Southwest who will be a full-time candidate. Not a part-time candidate and part-time MP,” Jackson posted to Instagram. “Not a part-time candidate who is also travelling the province seeking the party’s leadership.” Jackson says she’s also seeking the nomination for the eventual byelection, which, to repeat, hasn’t even been called yet.
(There’s also the small matter of whether the Liberals will even hold a contested nomination or whether interim leader John Fraser will appoint a candidate; Fraser spokesperson Lorne Levy tells TVO Today “no decision has been made” about any appointments.)
When the byelection is called, and if Erskine-Smith secures the nomination, then he’ll still need to actually win the byelection — and both the Tories and the New Democrats will have even more incentive than usual to fight for the seat: the NDP will want to hold on to a seat they carried through three elections, the Tories would love to win another seat in Scarborough, and both would be happy to bloody a potential rival party leader right out of the gate.
Erskine-Smith has been a smart operator and a good politician. This week, he got lucky. If he wants to win a seat at Queen’s Park and eventually lead the Liberals, he’s going to need to be more of both.