On the one hand, the last seven-plus years have been the worst in the 158-year history of the Ontario Liberals. The party had never placed third in three straight elections, as it did in 2018, 2022, and 2025. It now must replace Bonnie Crombie, who improved the party’s position in this year’s election but didn’t meet the high bar both she and party supporters expected of her.
In some respects, the Liberals are still in a state of shock over their predicament. The party received 30 per cent of the total vote in the election earlier this year, which, under normal circumstances, would deliver a lot more than just 14 seats. But our first-past-the-post system can deliver harsh results. Should the party stay the course and hope for a continued upswing?
On the other hand, you could argue the party has nothing to lose; why not experiment with some new things that might attract a new audience?
That fork in the road is where the Liberals find themselves as 2025 comes to a close.
The first and most important decision the party brass has to make is: when do we want to hold our next leadership convention?
Two schools of thought persist. First, the next election is probably more than three years away, so the party should move quickly to hold a convention, elect a new leader, and give that leader ample time to get known, travel the province looking for candidates, and raise money.
Alternatively, the next election is probably more than three years away, so what’s the hurry? Let’s take our time, cast a wide net to allow some unconventional candidates to dip their toes into the water, and see what happens. The party tried two experienced politicians in Crombie and before her, Steven Del Duca, now the mayor of Vaughan. Both had so much difficulty making a dent in Premier Doug Ford’s popularity that neither could win even their own seat. What about trying something different?
It turned out the 2025 election was all about protecting Ontario from the menace that is Donald Trump, and given that reality, the biggest chunk of Ontarians decided Ford was the man for the job. But will that still be the ballot question three years from now? Might it be something else, such as the problematic state of the province’s health-care system?
I can think of four candidates who sure hope so, because they’re all specialists when it comes to health care. Adil Shamji, a medical doctor and the MPP for Don Valley East, has shown a talent for communicating on a wide range of issues as the party’s frequent media spokesman. Lee Fairclough, the MPP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, has held many roles in the health-care system, from medical radiation therapist to hospital president in Kitchener.
Outside the caucus, two high-profile health-care experts with impressive credentials are kicking the tires on a possible run. Danielle Martin chairs the department of family and community medicine and teaches at the University of Toronto and is also a family doc at Women’s College Hospital. Andrew Boozary garnered a lot of attention during the COVID crisis when he co-led a provincial homelessness response unit in Toronto. He was also the founding executive director of the Gattuso Centre for Social Medicine at the University Health Network, currently teaches health policy innovation at U of T, and has worked in Liberal circles for many years, without coming across as overly partisan.
Greg Wong, who has a couple of decades in Liberal backrooms as a fundraiser and adviser, is urging the party to pump the brakes. His view is: there’s no way to know now what kind of leader the party will need in 2029.
“If we move early, the new leader will be tarnished in six months by Ford and the millions in his war chest,” Wong has emailed friends. “Additionally, as long as Trump is in power, Ford will continue to promote his outrageous narrative. No new provincial leader can survive this narrative.”
Wong’s approach would be to delay the leadership race, let the current team of MPPs carry the ball for now, “while quietly rebuilding the car for the party. Then we worry about the driver in 2028,” he says.
If the Liberals plan to hold off on their leadership election, they could try something completely different in the meantime. Rather than have the interim parliamentary leader, John Fraser, lead the troops into question period, what about allowing each of the other 13 MPPs the right to be the leader on an interim basis, for three months at a time, thus featuring all the MPPs, many of whom never get their moment in the spotlight. I can’t ever recall that being done before, but there’s a certain logic in featuring the team over the interim leader, even though Fraser has done a good job given the circumstances.
With the house not returning until March, the Liberals now have the luxury of having a thorough debate about their future. Let’s see how inventive they’re prepared to be.