Ever since Donald Trump threatened to annex Canada and Mark Carney became prime minister, nothing has been usual, normal, or predictable in national politics. We live in a time without precedent.
And so it was with the byelections on Monday, two in Ontario and one in Quebec. They have given the Liberals their much-coveted majority, while giving the Conservatives new reason to doubt their leader and giving the New Democrats time for theirs to rebuild.
The conventional wisdom is that byelections don’t matter, and usually they don’t. Ask Don Stewart, the Conservative who narrowly won the riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s on June 24, 2024. His victory was seen as harbinger of his party’s ascent in the next federal election. Nine months later, Stewart was gone and the Liberals were returned to power.
But this trifecta of victories is different. It gives the Liberals 174 seats in the House of Commons, a slender majority. Assuming things stay as they are, the Liberals will have three more years to govern. No more threats of votes of non-confidence or sticky compromises with the opposition. Full government control over the legislative process. Majority has its privileges.
Danielle Martin, an eminent doctor, was elected in University–Rosedale. Doly Begum, the former deputy leader of the Ontario NDP, was elected in Scarborough Southwest. Both had staggering majorities.
In Terrebonne, Tatiana Auguste regained the seat she won by a single vote last time, before the Supreme Court annulled the result. Her victory shows the Liberals are competitive in a seat the Bloc Québécois once held and fought hard to win.
Auguste, Martin, and Begum are now Carney Liberals. With his new majority, the prime minister is expected to bring more new faces into Cabinet, which may, one day, include them.
The byelection victories accentuate the biggest political story over the last year: the surprising, broad, and stratospheric popularity of Mark Carney.
Even if the Liberals had lost those byelections, it would have changed little in the short term. That’s because while the Liberals had been governing with a minority, they already had a psychological majority. In a country with no appetite for an election, neither the Conservatives nor the New Democrats would dare bring Carney down in Parliament. Polls show the Liberals with national support of 45 per cent or more, several points ahead of the Conservatives.
Carney’s personal popularity is around 60 per cent. In a big, diverse, regional country, that’s extraordinary. Since he entered politics in January 2025, became leader in March, and won the election in April, he has consolidated his appeal.
He has done so by abandoning policies (the carbon tax, the digital services tax) maintaining others (the Canadian Dental Plan, pharmacare, tax cuts), and introducing popular measures (the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, and this week, suspending the fuel excise tax.)
As prime minister, Carney has projected competence, experience, and ambition. He has brought seasoned professionals into his circle. He has avoided his predecessor’s missteps and self-inflicted wounds. He has shown Canadians (especially in Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan) that he is a serious person in a serious time.
This is the Carney Consensus.
He has played the right notes, working to diversify foreign trade and rebuild our military. To create an internal economy, he is championing an economic union and the building of big things, like ports, high-speed rail, and pipelines. To make new friends abroad, he talks about the shifting world order and aligning ourselves with like-minded middle powers, including Scandinavia. Among his achievements is returning Canada to the world, reviving a voice of moderation silenced over the last generation.
A majority government will allow Carney to move faster and consult less in all these areas. Bills will take less time in committee, where the opposition can hold them up in a minority parliament. Opposition MPs can still propose amendments, but now the government does not have to accept them. It can shut down debate and move to a vote.
A majority will deepen strains and divisions, as it has among environmentalists and progressives, many of them Liberals. It may give pause to conservatives, whose ranks in the Liberal caucus are growing. The challenge for Carney is managing dissent and brokering compromise. Because he has a thin majority, Carney will not have the luxury of doing things that may alienate members of his caucus — or the country. He cannot afford members voting against government policy.
But his new majority will also strengthen Carney’s hand amid separatist challenges from Alberta and Quebec, and give him the mandate he needs to accept (or reject) a new free trade agreement with the United States. If negotiators produce an agreement he can embrace, he need only win the approval of his caucus, not the opposition (though it would be in his interest to have broad approval for something this big).
For a guy new to politics, Caney is a natural — and seems to enjoy it. Who wouldn’t want to be at the Bell Centre in Montreal, watching Cole Caufield score his 50th goal of the season, before heading into the Canadiens’ dressing room to offer congratulations?
Spring won’t last forever, but this is Carney’s Hour.