You would be forgiven for thinking that the most bruising political battles are among members of different parties. The truth is, some of the most heartbreaking and vicious fights happen within parties, especially when the stakes are high.
That’s the case right now in the riding of Scarborough Southwest, where there will soon be a byelection to replace former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum, who switched to the federal Liberals and will try to become the next MP for the same constituency.
As soon as Begum announced her intention to leave Queen’s Park, Qadira Jackson put up her hand and said she wanted to be the Liberal party’s nominee in the provincial byelection. Jackson is the so-called “candidate of record,” because she ran in Scarborough Southwest in the 2025 provincial election. She was appointed to the nomination by former leader Bonnie Crombie just two weeks before the election call.
According to the customs of political courtesy, it behooves new challengers to call the candidate of record, just to let them know a new entrant will contest the nomination. Those calls usually go something like this: “Qadira, good for you for running last time, but I just wanted to let you know that I’m interested in running this time, so good luck to you, and whatever happens, let’s make sure we’re united after this is over so the Liberals can win the seat.” Or something like that.
That did not happen in this case, at least, not for a month. And not at all like that.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith initially made it known on February 4 that, despite representing Beaches-East York in federal parliament since 2015, he intended to seek the Scarborough Southwest Ontario Liberal nomination, as a precursor to running for the now-vacant party leadership. Jackson says Erskine-Smith didn’t make his courtesy call until March 3.
“Not calling me showed a lack of judgement and was detrimental to him, because many people called me to see if he called me,” Jackson said.
Erskine-Smith confirmed that “Qadira expressed frustration that I didn’t reach out right away,” but adds he had a mutual friend reach out for him.
When the two finally did meet, Jackson says the meeting was very matter-of-fact, maybe a bit chilly. Erskine-Smith says he apologized to Jackson, acknowledged it would have been better had he reached out right away, but told her that he “welcomed her as a candidate in the nomination race, and that she’d also be welcome to join our team.”
This type of in-fighting can be typical in Canadian politics, especially in the messiness of a rushed byelection. Determining a nominee often forces political parties to choose between multiple deserving candidates, each with their own claim to the role.
But this case is especially consequential. The stakes in this byelection are huge for both Erskine-Smith and the Liberals. He’s not shy about the fact that winning a seat in Scarborough Southwest is the first step to contesting the party leadership once again. (Erskine-Smith came second to Crombie in 2023.)
Right now, he would have to be considered the favourite in the race. But losing this nomination would deal his leadership hopes a significant blow — not fatal, but serious. While you don’t need a seat to contest the leadership, it certainly helps. And losing an intra-party fight now would not inspire confidence.
“I’m saying to the people: there’s an opportunity in Scarborough Southwest to building something for folks across Ontario,” Erskine-Smith told me. “I want strong local representation and in the premier’s office, and we can start that change in Scarborough.”
Erskine-Smith is one of the most interesting characters in Canadian politics. At just 41 years old, he has brought both star power and an ability to shine light on issues that are particularly important to younger voters, such as housing and transit. He has a passionate and committed group of followers. But he has also been criticized by others who think he puts himself above his party, such as when he said he felt “disrespected” when Prime Minister Mark Carney dropped him from cabinet.
But despite his star-power, Erskine-Smith’s shot at this byelection is far from guaranteed. He must first compete against several candidates, each with a lot going for them.
Jackson, a lawyer, points to her 40 years of history in Scarborough, working with kids as a social worker at homeless shelters, detention centres, and group homes. She’s also a director at the West Scarborough Neighbourhood Community Centre. She came third in the riding during the 2025 election, capturing 23 per cent of the vote — seven points behind the provincewide Liberal party average, but up five points from the 2022 election. In fairness, her campaign experienced a perfect storm of problems: her campaign manager left halfway through the campaign to run in another riding (Rob Cerjanec, who won in Ajax), her riding association was broke, and she got scammed by a local flyer-drop delivery company.
Ahsanul Hafiz insists he’s the guy to beat in the race. Hafiz came to Canada as an international student in 2002 and got his bachelor’s degree in science and math while delivering pizza in Windsor. Ten years later, he bought his first Domino’s Pizza franchise in Leamington. Today, the 44-year-old owns 30 locations in Ontario and two more in Quebec, is married and has two sons, 8 and 4. Hafiz is also originally from Bangladesh, in a riding that’s heavily Bengali.
He had planned to run in the federal byelection to replace former MP Bill Blair and says he signed up 3,500 members for that contest. But when the federal Liberals appointed Begum to be their candidate, Hafiz decided to seek the provincial nomination in the same riding. “I can compete well,” he says. “100 per cent, I think I can win.”
The public rarely gets to see how the sausage is made, but in nomination races, there is often political maneuvering, hard conversations, and plenty of long-term strategy. Only one candidate moves forward; what happens to the rest? Some will shift their support to a competitor, stay involved with the party, and might even work for the eventual winner. Others will drop out altogether — perhaps taking their supporters with them.
As an example: Hafiz says that, nearly two weeks ago, he and Erskine-Smith had a face-to-face meeting at his office in Scarborough. “He was not very happy at the end of the meeting. He hoped I would drop out. He didn’t ask me to drop out, but he’s putting it in such a way that he’d like to be the premier,” Hafiz says.
“I’m not against him becoming the leader, but I’m not pulling out of the race,” Hafiz adds. “I know I can win this.”
Erskine-Smith acknowledges that he and Hafiz spoke. “I thought it made some sense for him to join us provincially rather than run in a nomination,” Erskine-Smith says. “But I was also clear that I welcomed a contested nomination, and it was all good if that was his decision. I don’t mind the competition, and I also want to build the strongest team.”
Mahmuda Nasrin, meanwhile, another worthy candidate, estimates she’s signed up 500 new members for the nomination. She’s also from Bangladesh, moved to Canada in 2010, and joined the Liberals almost immediately. She’s an elected director on the federal Scarborough Southwest riding association, having worked on former-MP Blair’s campaign team. She refers to Erskine-Smith as “my friend,” given their lengthy shared history with the federal Liberals. She had Erskine-Smith over to her home when he ran for the provincial leadership a few years back (although she confesses she voted for Crombie). Nasrin says Erskine-Smith suggested she tell her supporters to support him on the second ballot. You might think that would be an easy sell. But Nasrin told me: “They won’t consider it. He doesn’t live in our area.”
Sometimes, though, these conversations take a different tone. Another Scarborough resident who was considering running for the nomination has decided to drop out of the race and support Erskine-Smith. Ali Demircan says he and Erskine-Smith spoke on March 2, at which time Demircan decided not to pursue the nomination. Demircan is a survivor of the July 2018 shooting on the Danforth. He met Erskine-Smith at that time, after which the two worked together on reducing gun violence.
“Nate is close to this riding and to the community here,” Demircan told me on Saturday. “He’s kept the communications channels open.”
The Ontario Liberals haven’t set a date for the nomination meeting, but neither has Premier Doug Ford announced a date for the byelection to take place. The only thing that seems certain at this point is that the quest for the Liberal nomination will not be simple, which may make uniting the party after a standard-bearer is chosen that much harder.