1. Politics

ANALYSIS: What does Carney’s cabinet mean for Ontario?

The announcement tells us much about the prime minister’s perceived strengths — and weaknesses
Written by Andrew Cohen
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives at the Office of the Prime Minister and Privy Council. (CP/Justin Tang)

Ontario elected 70 Liberals to Parliament on April 28. Ontario delivered for Mark Carney and, on Tuesday, he delivered for Ontario.

Of the 28 members of Carney’s new cabinet, 11 are from Ontario. Of 10 secretaries of state, a newly created second tier position, three are from Ontario. Including Carney, who was elected in suburban Ottawa, Ontario has 15 of 38 positions.

Cabinet making is imprecise, unwieldy, and often unfair, balancing ideology, expertise, race, religion, region, gender, and often, crass political favour.

In this cabinet, Carney is rewarding Ontario for giving him 49 per cent of its popular vote and 57 per cent of its 122 seats, the most of any province. While the Liberals had hoped for 80 seats in Ontario, which would have produced a solid majority, they deeply appreciate the loyalty of the country’s industrial heartland.

Several senior ministers are from Ontario, including foreign affairs (Anita Anand), national defence (David McGuinty), transport and internal trade (Chrystia Freeland), environment and climate change (Julie Dabrusin), and public safety (Gary Anandasangaree).

Tim Hodgson, MP for Markham-Thornhill, is the new minister of natural resources and energy. A friend and former colleague of Carney when he was governor of the Bank of Canada, Hodgson was chair of the board of directors of Hydro One. Evan Solomon, the prominent former broadcaster and a member of Carney’s running group, fills the new portfolio of artificial intelligence and digital innovation.

Patty Hajdu, minister of jobs and families, is a veteran of Justin Trudeau’s government.

Perhaps the oddest appointments are three cabinet members from Brampton: Ruby Sahota (combatting crime), Shafqat Ali (treasury board) and Maninder Sidhu (international trade). None is a star. It suggests the Liberals hope strong representation in the region will deter the Conservatives from making further inroads in the Greater Toronto Area.

The delegation from Ontario reflects the strengths and weaknesses of the cabinet at large. It has a mix of old and new faces, the reasons for some appointments sometimes unclear.           

In many ways, Carney’s cabinet is not new. Yes, he dropped many ministers. One was Nate Erskine-Smith, who was appointed housing minister early this year. He says he felt disrespected by Carney's decision. Might the ambitious Erskine-Smith consider leaving Parliament Hill for Queen's Park?

Carney also dropped Bill Blair, a senior minister from Toronto. At 71, Blair probably would not have run had he known he’d be left out.

(Something similar happened to Marc Garneau, the former astronaut and cabinet minister who ran for re-election in 2021 assuming he’d remain minister of foreign affairs. The job went to Mélanie Joly. Garneau, feeling betrayed, resigned his seat in early 2023.)

Behold, the gamesmanship of politics. As they say, governments appoint — and disappoint.

Then again, Carney is a novice in politics. It’s natural that he would rely on the advice of the professionals. He chose veterans who are less likely to get into trouble — for which he’d be skewered by Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons.

That’s why, in addition to the senior ministers from Ontario, he has kept Joly (industry), Dominic Leblanc (Canada-U.S. trade, intergovernmental affairs and one Canadian economy), François-Philippe Champagne (finance and national revenue). They know how things work.

It would be hard to ignore ministers who served under the last government. In 1968, for example, Pierre Trudeau appointed many members of the cabinet of his predecessor, Lester Pearson. They included Jean Chrétien, John Turner, Mitchell Sharp, Allan MacEachen, Don Jamieson, and Paul Hellyer. Louis St. Laurent kept on several ministers when he succeeded Mackenzie King in 1948. That’s not unusual when the country changes prime ministers but not parties.

Still, Carney might have had newer faces in more prominent roles if he really wanted his government to look different. After 10 years, Joly, Freeland, and Champagne have had a good run. Carney could have sent any of them to respectable diplomatic appointments in London, Paris, the United Nations, or Washington, where there will be vacancies. He did not.

Carney decided to keep them because he needs, in this critical hour, a seasoned executive circle. They will give him that, but it’s unlikely that Freeland, who lost the leadership to Carney, will stay longer than two years.

There are surprises in the new cabinet. Anna Gainey, former president of the Liberal Party, has been in Parliament since 2023. She becomes secretary of state for children and youth. She represents Westmount-NDG, one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada. However smart, personable, and committed to public service, there is no obvious reason Gainey should be in cabinet, other than, perhaps, as a representative of English Montreal.

In Ontario, Carney appointed Rechie Valdez minister of women and gender equality and secretary of state for small business and tourism after advocates insisted women should have their own portfolio

Sometimes sound ministers are simply unlucky. Ginette Petitpas Taylor was appointed health minister in 2017. She was dropped in 2019, reappointed in 2021, and included in Carney’s short-lived cabinet in March. She is steady, reliable, bilingual, and from New Brunswick. She was dropped, presumably so Carney could add Wayne Long (secretary of state for Canada Revenue Agency and financial institutions), who is also from New Brunswick.

It’s often crude. Mona Fortier, representing Ottawa-Vanier, was appointed to cabinet in 2019, serving as minister of middle-class prosperity, then president of the treasury board in 2021. She was dropped without apology in 2023. No one knew why.

This is politics. Cabinets are full of winners and losers. Much is being in the right place, from the right place, at the right time. It’s a game of musical chairs with no thanks and no job security.

Those appointed from Ontario, like any other ministers from large provinces, should not get too comfortable. There is always someone else to take their place.

If they falter (or simply if the political winds shift) they are disposable. For now, though, as they all say: It’s the honour of a lifetime.