They say that the most important person on the day of a political leadership convention is the winner.
They also say that the most important person the day after a leadership convention is the person who comes second.
That’s because the runner-up can determine whether the party will come together immediately, or whether the internecine warfare of the race will continue.
In 1983, Joe Clark came second to Brian Mulroney but made it clear to his supporters that the race was over, and it was imperative to unify around Mulroney’s leadership. His troops took their cues from Clark, the party’s former leader, and the Tories unified. No doubt that had a significant impact on Mulroney’s ability to lead the Progressive Conservatives to an historic election victory the following year.
Such was not the case a year later. John Turner won the 1984 Liberal leadership convention. But the forces supporting Jean Chretien were so upset at their candidate’s lack of support and so sure in their conviction that Turner wasn’t right for the job that they never unified around Turner. And that no doubt contributed to what at the time was the party’s worst defeat ever, later that year.
I raise this because that conventional wisdom is truly not a factor with the Liberals right now. Mark Carney’s victory at the leadership convention last Sunday was truly overwhelming. His 86 per cent support essentially means he can write his own ticket going forward. The second-place finisher, Chrystia Freeland, was so far behind with just 8 per cent support, that no one at the convention wondered afterwards whether she intended to support Carney going forward. The question was irrelevant.
But what is relevant? The future of someone who was once the second most important political figure in the country. Freeland was Justin Trudeau’s deputy prime minister for five years and finance minister for a little over four years. Her fingerprints were on every significant Trudeau-era policy initiative: from renegotiating free trade, to a national child-care rollout, to Canada’s robust support of Ukraine.
In December Freeland also struck the most unexpected and effective blow in getting rid of the prime minister. It appeared Trudeau wanted her to read the government’s fall economic statement and then immediately resign from the finance portfolio, to be replaced by Carney. Freeland refused and instead shocked the country by resigning from her cabinet roles. It turned out to be a fatal blow to Trudeau’s efforts to hang on to his post.
But now what?
Freeland's lack of support was notable given her stature in the party. (Steve Paikin)
Freeland’s performance at the leadership vote was astonishingly below expectations. Liberals were apparently so determined to change the channel from the Trudeau years, they thanked Freeland by ignoring her and giving an overwhelming mandate to the guy who, unlike Freeland, had not very much to do with the Trudeau years.
If Carney understands the mandate his fellow Liberals have given him, he’ll know they want to turn the page in a major way. And that likely means a much less significant role for Freeland going forward.
She has stated repeatedly that she intends to run again in her University-Rosedale riding. But she’s accustomed to being a major player; would she really be able to accept a bit part?
Prime ministers have a way of solving these kinds of problems. They have the power of appointment. Carney could solve two problems at once by giving Freeland a new mission as an ambassador somewhere. That allows her to save face. It also opens up a safe Liberal seat in downtown Toronto where Carney could plant his flag and contest the next election.
Carney has so many immediate decisions requiring his attention: how to respond to Trump’s nonsensical behaviour; how to work with the premiers to ensure a unified Team Canada response; determining when he should officially assume his duties as the country’s 24th prime minister; choosing who should be in his new cabinet. And, finally: what to do with his runner-up, who isn’t really in a position to demand anything from the new leader.
Freeland’s poor finish on Sunday isn’t a reflection of her lack of talent or energy or accomplishments. She was simply too tied to the Trudeau record which Liberals are now trying to run away from at warp speed. Her unique selling proposition just wasn’t what Liberals wanted, and there’s no shame in that.
But by leaving politics now, she has an opportunity to write a new chapter in what has been a pretty impressive last 11 years in public life, including going down in history as the first ever female finance minister.
Let’s see if the new prime minister gives her that chance.