Years ago, as a young, unknown parliamentarian in Ottawa, Pierre Poilievre paid a weekend visit to the home of a constituent who had assembled a unique collection of the works of Sir Winston Churchill. Poilievre, fascinated, spent hour after hour in the shadow of the great man.
Poilievre had developed a deep interest in the life of Churchill, who famously led Britain through the Second World War with boldness and eloquence. Like Churchill, Poilievre is said to practice his speeches before a mirror, polishing cadences and adjusting words.
On Monday, Poilievre learned that he will not deliver those speeches as prime minister, at least not in the near future. He also learned that he will not deliver them as a member of Parliament, at least not imminently. His party lost the election, and he lost his seat.
But, like Churchill, who suffered bruising reversals in his decades in politics, Poilievre shows no sign of relenting. He is not resigning as leader of the Conservative Party. If his remarks to his supporters were any measure, he is not ready to go into the political wilderness, there to rethink and regroup, as Churchill did in the 1930s.
Didn’t the Conservatives enter Tuesday leading in 144 ridings (up from 119 in 2021, but several seats remain too close to call) and with their highest popular vote since 1988? Didn’t the party hold the Liberals to a minority government, which few predicted?
Poilievre knew that and reminded his cheering supporters of those successes. His was less a concession speech than a stump speech. He congratulated Mark Carney and his other opponents, yes. But what was striking was the lack of any recognition that his party had lost and that he had lost, too.
In January, his party held a lead of 20 points in the polls. It raised far more money than the Liberals. He was, to many, the presumptive prime minister. But here was a leader who spent much of his two and a half years in opposition taking extreme positions, fraternizing with the far right, threatening to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada, demonizing the mainstream media, and declaring that Canada is “broken”.
On Monday night, the Conservatives had improved their position, it’s true, holding the Prairies and winning seats in southwest Ontario and British Columbia, especially from the NDP. But the reality remains that it had lost to the Liberals, again. It had given the party its fourth consecutive mandate, a string of victories rarely seen in Canadian politics.
What was striking was how similar Poilievre’s remarks were to his campaign pitch. The beautiful house. The safe street. The proud flag. The dream of getting ahead. His unlikely story as the adopted son of schoolteachers. Now he was running not for prime minister but for opposition leader, the job he already had — and may still lose.
Poilievre told his followers that it would be an honour “to continue” to serve them, presuming, for a moment, that they want to retain his services. He didn’t ask. He didn’t hint at resigning (as did Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the NDP, who also lost his seat). Poilievre ignored the fact that, while he was speaking, the votes were still being counted in his riding of Carleton, and he didn’t have enough of them.
For weeks, that had been a danger. It’s why his party enlisted workers from Calgary and poured resources into the suburban Ottawa riding. They knew the Liberals, under the indefatigable Bruce Fanjoy, had mobilized their own army to defeat him, and did.
So, what is Poilievre’s future? Unlike Churchill, who was a pariah in his own party in the 1930s, he isn’t going away. He won’t have a seat when the House of Commons reconvenes in May. To get one, he will have to ask a colleague in a safe seat to resign, creating a vacancy and triggering a byelection, which the Liberals will wait to call. That may not happen for months.
Poilievre’s narrative is that the campaign was a success. He is no Andrew Scheer or Erin O’Toole, who lost to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2019 and 2021. He will not leave. With Churchillian resolve, he will not give in. He will never surrender.
Yet it isn’t so simple. The results that looked good for the Conservatives on Monday night might not look so good on Tuesday morning. Critics, and there are many in his party, will remind Conservatives that Poilievre fell out with premiers Doug Ford of Ontario and Tim Houston of Nova Scotia, who should have been allies.
He alienated partisans by appointing candidates, ignoring the nominating process and overlooking more experienced people. He did not easily adjust his strategy from fighting Justin Trudeau to fighting Donald Trump. His campaign manager, the brass-knuckled Jenni Byrne, made enemies easily and unapologetically.
Poilievre did attempt to use the campaign to humanize himself, an at-times painful charm offensive designed to soften his image. But it was hard to be anything but what he is.
Poilievre will not admit that. Bent but unbroken, offering more blood, sweat, and years, he will ask his party for a second chance to make a first impression. It isn’t clear if it will agree.
Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that the Liberals had last won a fourth consecutive mandate n 1972. In fact, it also happened in 2004. TVO Today regrets the error.