The last seven years have tested the core of Ontario Liberals. The party suffered a catastrophic defeat to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in the 2018 election, then got a new leader in Steven Del Duca, an experienced cabinet minister with a solid political machine. But Del Duca couldn’t turn the tide, came third in the 2022 election, and couldn’t win a seat in the process. With Del Duca out, the party chose Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie, a proven winner at the municipal level. Crombie got the Liberal vote up to nearly 30 per cent in 2025 and regained official party status by winning more than 12 seats. But she still suffered the same fate as Del Duca — a third-place finish without a seat of her own in the legislature.
So here we are again. The Grits need a new leader, but perhaps more than that, they need some hope.
But here’s the thing about leadership conventions: they can give a political party a fresh start, particularly if members choose someone who can inspire the base (and beyond) to take an interest.
Are the potential candidates for the vacant Liberal crown capable of that? Let’s look at who’s kicking the tires.
Given that the last two Liberal leaders were stuck outside the legislature, party members may give additional credence to a candidate with a track record of winning their seat. That would certainly favour some of the players currently ensconced at Queen’s Park. Three years ago, when Del Duca left provincial politics to successfully run for mayor of Vaughan, I asked him whom he thought would be the best person to replace him as leader. He mentioned Dr. Adil Shamji, the rookie MPP from Don Valley East. Shamji eventually took a pass on the last leadership contest but is seriously eyeing a run this time. He’s bright, communicates well, and is often the go-to guy when Liberals have announcements to make on a wide range of issues.
Lee Fairclough performed the rare feat of taking a seat away from Ford’s Tories in this year’s election, winning in the premier’s backyard in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. She cruised to a 4,145-vote victory after losing by an excruciatingly close 842 votes in 2022. Like Shamji, Fairclough has a health-care background, having been president of a hospital in Kitchener and a vice-president at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, among other roles at the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre and the University Health Network.
Three others from the current caucus are also said to be considering bids: Stephanie Bowman (Don Valley West), whose financial bona fides are solid given her former roles as an executive with Scotiabank and a member of the board of the Bank of Canada; Ted Hsu (Kingston and the Islands), who ran unsuccessfully last time but may be the best educated MPP ever (Hsu has his PhD in physics from Princeton and has also worked in finance in Paris and Tokyo); and Rob Cerjanec, a 36-year-old rookie MPP who took Ajax away from the Tories by only 331 votes earlier this year.
There are also some intriguing “outsiders” who are considering a run. Burlington MP Karina Gould has established an exploratory committee. She boosted her profile when she contested the federal leadership earlier this year, losing to Mark Carney. Gould has a young family and experience well beyond her 38 years. She currently chairs the federal finance committee, a good gig if you can’t be in cabinet.
Dr. Andrew Boozary’s name comes up in conversations. He’s the founding executive director of the Gattuso Centre for Social Medicine at the University Health Network. He gained some profile during the pandemic as a frequent commentator on health, but has no political experience to speak of.
Perhaps the most intriguing option seriously considering a bid is Dr. Danielle Martin, chair of the Department of Family and Community Medicine at the University of Toronto. Martin’s communication skills are unparalleled in health care. Her expertise is first-rate. In a bravura performance, she testified before a U.S. Senate committee in 2014 and schooled the politicos on how little they knew about health care. Martin has little partisan political experience, and who knows what kind of organization she could build. But she can be expected to dazzle at all-candidates debates.
The other wildcard in the race is MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who at age 41 inspires both passionate followers and infuriated detractors. Erskine-Smith came second to Crombie in the last race but alienated many Liberals by knee-capping Crombie while seeming unable to decide where to plant his flag. Erskine-Smith initially said he wouldn’t seek re-election to the House of Commons but changed his mind when Justin Trudeau put him in cabinet. Carney at first kept him, then dumped him, and the MP wasn’t shy about expressing his frustration. Then he poked his nose into the provincial party’s affairs and was the only MP to show up to the recent leadership review convention. Erskine-Smith has a solid following who like his policy chops and “choice of the next generation” vibe. But it’s also accurate to say that in politics, he who kills the king rarely gets to take the throne.
The Liberal leadership is a fascinating prize. The party brass hasn’t decided whether to have a convention soon, in hopes of narrowing the field to candidates who already have organizations in place, or to have a longer runway in hopes of attracting newer options who need more time. The party isn’t that far behind the governing Tories with a fairly broad base of support (only 7 per cent of the electorate would need to abandon the PCs to give the Liberals a shot at winning). But it’s also nowhere in vast swaths of Ontario; the rebuilding job won’t be for the faint of heart.
It's worth noting how many of the contenders have a health-care connection. Donald Trump won’t likely be around when the next Ontario election happens, which means the ballot question may be different three-and-a-half years from now. And after 10 straight years of Fordism, who knows? Maybe voters will want something else?
All of which suggests the Liberal leadership is a desirable opportunity for the brave, but no small renovation job. Does fortune really favour the bold?
Former Ontario Liberal leader David Peterson, the province’s 20th premier, thinks so. At a gala dinner Monday night for the Pearson Centre (a progressive think tank), Peterson reminded the crowd he inherited a bankrupt rural rump of a party in 1982. “But we worked like donkeys for three years, and we were lucky and things broke our way and we exploited the opportunities and formed a government,” he said. “I guarantee you the opportunity will present itself with the right leadership. I think it’s a fabulous opportunity. If I were a young guy today, I’d run.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article stated that Mark Carney put Nate Erskine-Smith into a cabinet position. In fact, it was Justin Trudeau. TVO Today regrets the error.
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