Mark Carney understands the fundamental danger to Canada from the mercurial Donald Trump. Carney knows the threat to our economy and sovereignty instinctively and intellectually. He realizes that without an agreement, our situation is dire.
As prime minister of the country most vulnerable to this new protectionism, managing Donald Trump is everything. Angering him would be disastrous. So, every day, in every way, it’s a campaign of explaining and persuading, gently but firmly, without surrender or submission.
This is why Carney rescinded the Digital Services Tax and refused to impose “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs. It is why Canada is spending $1.3 billion on the border to stop fentanyl going south, fixing a problem that doesn’t exist. It is why Carney will discuss participating in the Golden Dome, Trump’s fanciful air-defense system, and why he lauds Trump’s peace plan in Gaza, among other valentines.
This is as much about psychology as economics. It is about creating a relationship with the leader of our biggest trading partner to allow us, with shrewdness and patience, to navigate the narrow straits between fear and failure.
Trump is moody, mercenary, and incendiary. Since taking office in March, Carney has tried to find favour with him in Washington, at the G7 in Alberta, and anywhere else, including at the United Nations General Assembly, where they arranged this week’s meeting.
It may be that nothing substantial emerged from the Oval Office beyond renewed instructions to negotiators to find a deal on steel, aluminum, and energy. We can live with it. Rag the puck and hope events in the U.S. will help us. If tariffs fuel inflation and cost jobs, eventually consumers and producers will demand a deal — and Trump will want one before the mid-term congressional elections next year.
Carney has shown Trump that he is an honest broker, and it’s worked, for now. Trump now calls him “nice” and “nasty” in the same sentence (as he did Tuesday) and sees no contradiction because it’s a term of endearment. Carney is also “a world class leader” and “a good man.”
“I think he’s a great prime minister,” Trump said. “I mean, he could represent me anytime.” Hearing that, Carney grinned, scribbled in the air, and instructed reporters: “Write that down.”
That bonhomie wasn’t spontaneous; it comes from a calculated, disciplined charm offensive. There is a reason Carney calls Trump “a transformative president” and why it lands as a compliment. Amid the volley of jibes and threats, Carney shows restraint and humility. Whatever he truly thinks of Trump, it doesn’t matter.
What matters, he knows, is preserving the relationship between the president and the prime minister. In the last century, most have been warm and productive: Franklin Roosevelt and Mackenzie King; John F. Kennedy and Lester Pearson; Brian Mulroney and both Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush; Jean Chrétien and Bill Clinton; Justin Trudeau and Barack Obama. Canada benefited.
Some relationships were sour. John Diefenbaker and JFK quarreled. So did Pearson and Lyndon Johnson, Pierre Trudeau and Richard Nixon, Chrétien and George W. Bush. Importantly, in each case, Canada advanced its interests, and the world’s oldest, most successful bilateral relationship endured.
It is harder now. Trump is the most transactional and intractable president we have ever faced. We must adapt with every arrow in our quiver. That’s what Carney is doing.
Consider what might have happened had Justin Trudeau or Chrystia Freeland been seated where Carney was. Trump often belittled Trudeau and disliked Freeland. Neither would have been able to manage today’s Trump (much as they ably re-negotiated the free trade agreement in Trump’s first term).
And Pierre Poilievre, who has generously offered his services to Carney in talks? Political posturing doesn’t produce lasting international trade deals.
Carney’s long game has its critics. Many think he is weak and obsequious. The head of the United Steelworkers union in Canada, for example, was “disgusted” by the warmth in the Oval Office, because Trump’s tariffs are putting his members out of work.
Does he expect the prime minister to issue ultimatums? Should he suspend exports of oil and gas, cut off electricity, or threaten tit-for-tat tariffs?
That may happen one day, but defying Trump usually ends badly. Ask Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky or India’s Narendra Modi. Forbeance is smarter. It got British Prime Minister Keir Starmer a (modest) deal with Trump, even if he and King Charles had to embarrass themselves in the effort.
At the same time, Carney also faces accommodationists such as Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada. When Hyder says we should listen more to the United States Ambassador in Ottawa, who grouses about America’s unrequited love of Canada, it sounds like appeasement.
Ultimately, Carney will have to make tough decisions, from Quebec’s dairy farmers to Ontario’s automakers to environmentalists and pipelines. The long game may get us a grand bargain, perhaps on defence or energy. Or, maybe, as Thomas d’Aquino has proposed, a comprehensive treaty. It may buy time to diversify our trade, restructure our economy and shift our exports toward Europe, especially Scandinavia, Asia, and beyond.
Meanwhile, it’s about managing the Man. If he ends wars and reconciles enemies, Donald Trump will deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. If he disarms Trump and saves our prosperity, Mark Carney will deserve the Nobel Prize in Chemistry.
Donate Now