Hamilton is a tough place to be the mayor.
Starting in this century: Robert Wade served one term before retiring from public life. Larry Di Ianni served one term before losing to Fred Eisenberger, who served one term before losing to Bob Bratina, who served one term before losing to Eisenberger — who actually managed to win two consecutive elections. Now, Andrea Horwath is in the final year of her first term as mayor.
Can she win a second term?
Hamiltonians seem to want to keep their mayors humble. Horwath won the 2022 mayor’s race by just 1,663 votes, out of more than 130,000 votes cast. Eisenberger won the 2006 mayor’s race by 452 votes out of nearly 130,000 votes cast. And all signs point to a tight three-way fight this October, for the right to wear the mayor’s chain of office.
Now, I concede part of the reason I’m so interested in this race is that Hamilton is my hometown, and I know all the players reasonably well. But as you look around Ontario, it’s hard to find such a dramatic, three-way fight between an incumbent, their former challenger, and a new entrant on the scene who’s also turning heads. The winner has the daunting task of trying to manage Ontario's fifth-largest city through some very challenging times.
I wanted to speak to the three prime contenders for the job. The two challengers agreed and we spoke at length. Mayor Horwath’s office declined and instead, sent this quote:
“I remain focused on the job Hamiltonians elected me to do — delivering responsible budgets, investing in infrastructure and housing, and strengthening community safety. I’m proud of the progress we’ve made, and I will continue to lead our city forward.”
Horwath has insisted she’s definitely running for re-election, even as rumours persist that, given the one-term-and-out-curse, she still has the option of stepping back if the polls don’t look encouraging.
Horwath’s two prime challengers bring different strengths to the race. Keanin Loomis was a first-time political candidate in 2022, and yet still managed to come within 1 percentage point of defeating Horwath — a veteran politician who won her first election to Hamilton City Council in 1997 before moving to provincial politics in 2004, eventually becoming NDP leader.
Keanin Loomis is taking a second crack at the mayor's race. (Steve Paikin)
“Wherever I go in the city, people are coming up to me and saying: Hey, I supported you last time around and so that's great that you’re running again,” Loomis says. “And it's not just among the leadership community, but just regular Hamiltonians.”
When I asked Loomis how long it took him to get over his razor-thin defeat, he candidly admits: “In some ways, I might not even still be over it, right?” But after finding a new job, Loomis admitted to himself that the campaign was exhilarating, and he couldn’t wait to dive back in.
“It was both exhausting and energizing at the same time,” he says. “It was actually a lot of fun.”
Why does Loomis want a rematch?
“I think [Horwath] is proving every single day that she just is incapable of doing this job well, and that Hamilton needs more,” he says.
Loomis points to Horwath’s role as opposition leader at Queen’s Park as being not a particularly good training ground for the mayoralty. “I think this is a different role than the one the mayor did for a really long time,” says Loomis, who’s lived in Hamilton since 2009. “This requires actually managing and being strategic.”
Loomis takes a pro-business approach to running the city. He’s currently president and CEO of the Canadian Institute of Steel Construction and sits on the board of the Hamilton-Oshawa Port Authority. Previously, he was a vice-president of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce and president of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce. He talks about restructuring city hall to get rid of a “toxic culture” and make it work more effectively.
“We have no reserves either, because most of the reserves have been spent by this council and councils before,” he adds. “And now we have to figure out how to run a city on the backs of taxpayers who don't want to see double-digit tax increases, and who are already paying some of the highest tax rates in the country.”
While many were looking forward to a Horwath-Loomis rematch, Rob Cooper had other ideas. When John-Paul Danko left council to become an MP, Cooper won the byelection to fill the seat. Five months later, he announced that he, too, wanted in on the mayor’s race.
Cooper points to tax increases, a stubborn homelessness problem, gun violence, and worsening roads as key problems facing the city. “I really believe that we can be in a lot better place than where we are,” he says.
Rob Cooper is a vying for the mayor's office. (Courtesy Rob Cooper)
Cooper brings an extensive business background to the campaign as a former vice-president with the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board as well as Manulife. He’s been an independent business consultant for the past six years and has completed executive programs at the London Business School, INSEAD, and Stanford, Harvard, and McMaster universities.
While Cooper’s elected experience is short, he’s spent plenty of time in political backrooms. He’s a lifelong conservative, although he gave up both his federal and provincial party memberships when he joined municipal politics.
“I’ve lived in Hamilton my whole life,” Cooper adds, “and I've seen Hamilton a lot better than what it is. With the right person with the right vision, we can really turn Hamilton into that economic engine of Canada. Not of Ontario, but of Canada.”
Cooper points to his professional experience as a guy who “rescues organizations.”
“My neighbour was shot dead five years ago,” Cooper says. “We’ve never seen stuff like this. A record number of shootings. It comes back to gangs, guns, and drugs. When I knocked on doors, people said they’re afraid to let their kids out of the house, right?”
Cooper says he won’t hesitate to use the so-called strong mayor powers to turn the city around. “I'll tell you this, Steve: in four years, you won't recognize the city. You hold me to my word when I talk about this. I'm bringing something very different to the race that we didn't have last time.”
Technically, candidates for this October’s municipal elections can’t register until May. But in Hamilton, the province’s best race for mayor is clearly already very much underway.