The 2025 Ontario election is done. What’s next? Swearing in a cabinet, electing a Speaker, dragging the legislature back to work, a throne speech — all standard post-election formalities. Then should come the main event: the 2025 Ontario Budget. This is the moment when the Doug Ford government gets to tell Ontarians where things stand, financially speaking, and —more importantly — how it plans to defend the province against a U.S.-Canada trade war that has gone from theory to practice.
Back in October, the government’s fall economic statement painted a picture that, while not rosy, was at least reassuring. Ontario had nearly balanced the books in 2023-24. The 2024-25 deficit was projected at $6.6 billion — not ideal, but better than the $9.8 billion predicted earlier in the year. There was even enough spare cash rolling in to send out $200 rebate cheques while still improving the bottom line. The debt-to-GDP ratio was inching downward. Economic growth was sluggish but better than projected. In short, the lights were on, and no one was panicking.
That was then. Now, the wheels are wobbling. The federal government’s capital gains tax hike — meant to deliver Ontario a $3.3-billion windfall over three years — is indefinitely parked. The much worse news? A trade war. The economic fallout from Trump’s resurgence is already hitting growth projections, and a modest recession is looking more and more likely. That means Ontario’s revenues will take a hit while demand for government spending will surge: a fiscal double whammy.
And that’s before factoring in the cost of Ford’s election promises. The Progressive Conservative platform was light on financial specifics, but it still managed to commit “over $40 billion” to counter U.S. tariffs — plus “billions more” for a grab bag of infrastructure projects and other campaign goodies. Also needing to be costed is a tunnel under Highway 401, an idea so absurd it wouldn’t survive a city council meeting but somehow made it into an election platform.
If all that weren’t enough, Ford’s early election call upended Ontario’s usual budget process. Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy had just wrapped up his pre-budget consultations when the writs were issued. The interim financial update based on performance to the end of the third quarter of 2024-25, usually delivered by February 15, has been kicked down the road. That report is required by the Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act to within a month after the new cabinet is sworn in. Normally, this document would offer crucial insights into any major shifts in the province’s finances. This year? Nothing so far. The Auditor General’s pre-election review? Cancelled by the off-cycle election call. The Financial Accountability Office’s independent analysis? Delayed until after the votes were counted. Ontarians, for the first time in recent memory, have been left entirely in the dark about the province’s finances.
So where does that leave us? The province’s finances are looking grim, and the clock is ticking. Hospitals, schools, municipalities — they all need to know how much money they’ll be working with next year. The budget isn’t just a necessary evil; it’s a financial lifeline. And it needs to be delivered as soon as possible.
What’s the timeline? Ford says his new cabinet could be sworn in on March 17 at the earliest. That makes mid-April a feasible time for both the long-awaited 2024-25 interim financial update and the unveiling of the budget. The government could delay further, but there’s no real excuse. They’ve already lost four-to-six weeks to the election and transition period. Dragging it out longer would be represent poor accountability and indecision at a time when just the opposite is needed.
As for the budget itself, it will almost certainly be delivered by Bethlenfalvy, a highly respected and credibly steady hand who is expected to stay on as finance minister. It will need to provide a clear-eyed accounting of Ontario’s finances — no smoke, no mirrors. The hard part? Mapping a realistic path back to balance. Because, right now, Ontario looks awash in red ink, and the tide is rising.
The outlook may be bleak, but the budget presents an opportunity for the Ford government to prove it’s got a plan. A credible response to the trade war. A transparent assessment of Ontario’s fiscal health. Some sign that the people in charge are not merely reacting but leading. Protecting the province from these economic threats won’t come cheap. The taxpayers should understand that and be ready for the debt to rise. What would be even more costly? Not protecting the provincial economy and Ontario families in these difficult times.
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