On Wednesday, members of the federal Conservative caucus voted to remove Erin O'Toole as leader of the party, by a margin of 73-45 (only 60 votes were required). Manitoba MP Candice Bergen has been selected to serve as interim leader; a full-time leader will be chosen by a leadership race that must now be organized. Though there had been obvious signs of discontent within the Conservative caucus even before September's disappointing election result, and constant rumours since, the real effort to oust O'Toole moved faster than many, including those in his inner circle, seemed to have expected. TVO.org speaks with a member of O'Toole's inner circle, whose name has been withheld so that they can speak freely.
Matt Gurney: Let's start a bit further back, in September. The Conservatives began with a really good start in the election, then you guys lost momentum. You made some mistakes, the Liberals belatedly got their sea legs under them, and the result ended up being a virtual repeat of the 2019 election: Tories narrowly won the popular vote, but Liberals won a minority with a more efficient voter distribution. O'Toole had bet heavily that a moderate swing would deliver results. It didn't happen. What were those few weeks like, right after the election?
Conservative: Oh. Yeah. Not fun. We knew even before the election that we were probably a one-and-done leadership team. We'd get a shot, and if we failed, we knew we were in trouble. The least we expected was a leadership review. For the Conservatives, that's just what we do now. All of us had seen what had just happened to Andrew [Scheer]. We knew we'd be no different. So, after the vote, yeah, there was disappointment in the outcome, but we also knew that we'd face something from caucus, even if we didn't know exactly what or when.
So we did a few things early. The first was to commission the Cumming report, which actually just landed last week, if you can believe it. That was one thing we did right away to buy some time. As long as we could point to that review as something we needed before rushing into any decisions, we knew we had some time. But, like, this week wasn't a surprise. We knew it was going to happen. It's been happening on a low level for months.
Gurney: Okay, let's talk about that. So we've moved past the initial election itself and the immediate aftermath. There's always a pause. People need to sleep, go home, see their families, and then get back to work after a break. Let's move deeper into the fall and early winter. What was happening?
Conservative:[laughs] Look, it's all blurring together in my head. I haven't slept in days, so I might get some of the sequence wrong. But, basically, right away, we had issues flaring up. There was Bert Chen. Remember him? I think he was first, but you'd have to check that. [Author’s note: Bert Chen was an Ontario member of the Conservative national council that launched a petition calling for a leadership review immediately after the election; he was suspended by the party in October.] So there was Chen almost right away, and then that was drama for a few weeks. And then there was Batters. I think that's right.
Gurney: It is. I have my notes in front of me, and that's the timeline: the Chen stuff was in September and October, and then it was Denise Batters, a Conservative senator, speaking out against O'Toole's leadership in November. He suspended her from the Conservative party, but she fought back and obviously retained a lot of support.
Conservative: Well, exactly. So that's just two examples. There are more I could remember once I have a nap or four more coffees. But we were fighting internal battles right away, and we knew pretty quickly that they weren't isolated.
Gurney: Chen was suspended in October, and Batters in November. December seemed more quiet. Hell, I have to make a confession. In early January, very early January, I was on a panel, and I was asked if I thought O'Toole was safe for now. And I said yes, because he seemed to have come through the worst of it and was still leader. I was wrong about that, so let the record show I've acknowledged as much. The thing is, maybe a week or two after I said that, I realized I was going to regret it. I don't know how to describe it exactly. No one explicitly told me, "Matt, here's what's going to happen." But the chatter changed suddenly. I'm not sure I can describe it better than that. And I started to think, oh, wow. O'Toole is in trouble. Did members of your team know he was?
Conservative:[long pause] I think maybe some people did?
Gurney: Wow. That was a very cautious answer.
Conservative: Yeah, I know. Look. I can't tell you people's private anxieties or fears. I can tell you that some of us thought that this was still a major, imminent problem, and some of us didn't. Some of us thought we'd come through it. And I was more worried than others, but the opposition to O'Toole in caucus went to ground after Batters. I don't know why. Maybe they were surprised at how quickly he responded? O'Toole, I mean. Maybe it was December anyway, and they just wanted to go home and relax for a few weeks over Christmas? I don't know. But I think there was a real change, and some of us read that as victory, when it was maybe more just a break.
Gurney: Can you give me a rough sense of how O'Toole's inner team was split? You said you were worried. Were you outnumbered by the “everything's fine” crowd?
Conservative: Hmm. That's a good question. I want to push back a bit, though. I don't think anyone thought it was fine — more like under control. Everyone had concerns, but some of us thought it was contained, at least for now, and others had concerns that obviously are now proven to have been well-founded.
It's not like there was one group that was panicking and another that was oblivious. I was part of the group that had concerns, but I don't know how widespread that feeling was. It wasn't a huge team around O'Toole, and we didn't really ever take a poll or anything, go around the table, and see how everyone felt. Maybe the team was too small, to be honest. That really limits the opinions that can be shared.
Gurney: So I've noted above already that, around December, I was thinking he was going to be okay, and then things started to change pretty early in January. Were things actually changing, or was I just oblivious?
Conservative: I don't know. I do think there was a respite around the holidays, and maybe that's what you noticed. I think after Batters, they decided to rest, regroup, and plan.
Gurney: And then some people around O'Toole maybe reached the same mistaken conclusion I did.
Conservative: I think what we can see now is that we underestimated the opposition to Erin. I think some of us thought the other guys were really stupid. We were blind to that. They weren't stupid.
Gurney: We've covered, even briefly, the background. By last week, my sources were buzzing. It was insane. I couldn't get a moment's rest. So by last week, something is up — big time. What happened?
Conservative: I don't think it was starting last week? Like, I don't think something new and specific happened a week ago. But I think after Batters, and after the holiday, they came back, and the anti-Erin people were like, well, the only real path forward is going to be a Reform Act vote. That's probably why you began hearing buzz a few weeks ago, in mid-January. That's when they'd have been getting organized. They needed at least 24 votes, and getting those is a process that's impossible to hide entirely. And I'll tell you something else, something you've probably been hearing — like, it's not a secret. It's being openly reported on. Our caucus meetings have been bad. Like, really bad. I'm assuming you talk to MPs?
Gurney: I do. And, yes. I've heard that.
Conservative: Our recent caucus meetings have been just shitshows. The media describes that politely as "raucous" or "rowdy" or whatever, but they've been absolutely miserable experiences all January. And I think this was part of the strategy, too. This was a war of attrition. Make everyone miserable. Make everyone angry. And, then, once you've got the votes, you put forward the Reform Act vote, and people seize on it, right? Oh, fine, anything to end the insanity.
[laughs]
I shouldn't laugh. It's not funny. But I keep thinking about our class of '21 — the newly elected MPs. People who gave up careers and moved across the country and are completely altering their family lives. This is what their first experiences are like? They have to be wondering what the hell they're doing. So our little rebel faction in caucus, they can keep this up forever. They can do little things, they can do big things, but they can play the long game and keep everyone miserable and on edge.
Gurney: And that's before the trucker convoy arrives?
Conservatives: Yeah, it was most of January. The reports are out there. You've read them. I'm sure you've heard from people.
Gurney: Yes. Like I said, the source-buzzing changed in January. Palpably. And my writing began to reflect that, I think. You'd see more notes of caution about O'Toole's longevity popping up.
Conservative: And then the convoy arrives. Erin is trying to find a calm, stable position. Some of our MPs are walking over to the protesters with coffee and donuts. The convoy didn't cause any of this; it was already happening. But it started to spill into the open. Like I said, I'm pretty tired. It's been a long few days. But if I were better rested, I could cite more examples and show you the path, I think. It was a pretty clearly orchestrated event.
Gurney: So you don't think the convoy kicked things off?
Conservative: Sped things up, maybe? Forced things into view? I'm sure some of the support MPs have expressed was just to sandbag Erin. I know you've talked about that. I don’t know, though. I think some of our MPs just actually want to embrace this populism, so they're doing it. It is a perfect wedge. Canadians are very pro-vaccine. We know that. Our party's position is very pro-vaccine. A lot of the attacks we get on that are unfair. The CPC has been explicitly pro-vaccine, loudly and proudly.
But we have been skeptical about some of the mandates and restrictions, and we have been cautious about overreach, compared to the Liberals. So it's a wedge against them, and it's also a wedge inside our party. For what it's worth, though, look at the polls. Opinion seems to be turning in that direction among the public. Canadians are still pro-vaccine, but they're increasingly skeptical of mandates and restrictions.
You know what, though? Okay. I'm going to be blunt. But directly quote me on this. If anyone wants to know what dealing with the Conservative movement has been like, and especially caucus, look at the convoy protesters. It's the same mix. Some people with sincere, principled concerns! Some people who are sincere but misguided and wrong about the data, but aren't bad people. Just misinformed. And a small — it really is small — but loud number of absolute cranks and bigots mixed in with them. And it's almost impossible to handle, because you have to handle each group differently, but they're all a blob. Dealing with the convoy in Ottawa is like a very loud version of my life these last 18 months.
Gurney: We're basically caught up to the present, so to speak. The convoy is in Ottawa; the party's internal battles are spilling into the open. Let's recap this week. On Monday, I get a call out of the blue from someone who I knew to take seriously. And he told me, straight up, that there was going to be a Reform Act vote on O'Toole's leadership, like, immediately. As fast as it could be arranged. He said they had the signatures to force the vote, and he was confident they had enough caucus support to win the vote. And I said, oh, gee, okay, thanks. There goes my evening plan. I start calling people. Including a bunch you'd know, I bet. And some of them were like, Gurney, I know why you're calling, yes, it's happening, I can't talk now, too busy. Click. Others had no idea. Some of the people who had no idea are people who should have known. It seemed like this really did catch people by surprise. What was your sense?
Conservative: We knew it was coming. On Monday, if you were calling me, I wouldn't have been surprised. You should have called me first! I'd have told you!
Gurney: Well, I'll remember that for next time. How much knowledge did you have? How much warning?
Conservative: Hmm. A week? Maybe not a full week. So this all began to pop into public view on Monday, but we knew before the weekend. I'd have to go back and check. You called me too early this morning! But I'd guess maybe five days? About that. Erin's opponents were smart. They got the necessary signatures quietly, and once they had them and could tell people they had them, other people felt comfortable signing on.
Something else that was fun? One of our MPs put a motion up for debate, a few weeks from now. The debate was to decide if we as a party should take a much more aggressive stand against Quebec's Bill 21. That would have made life completely impossible for our Quebec caucus. They'd have left. Some would go sit as independents; others would go join the Bloc, probably. But as soon as O'Toole is gone, that debate is off the schedule, I'm told. So it's pretty obvious that that was a gun to the heads of the Quebec caucus: vote to remove O'Toole, and we'll drop the debate that will drive you out. That fits with the broader strategy of just making everyone miserable. It was a simple deal: change leaders, and all this unpleasant stuff goes away.
Gurney: So you've laid out here two broad pictures. One is of a long-term campaign that you were aware of, and the other is the more recent sudden move. You were aware of both, even if, as you said, there was disagreement about how serious it was or how bad it would get. What could O'Toole or people around him have done?
Conservative: I'll be honest. I was not involved in that part of the effort. I was pretty busy with other parts. I couldn't tell you with confidence what specifically was being done to try to head this off. I know that a lot of calls were being made, obviously. Calling MPs, trying to find out where they were, get their support. That was definitely happening. I can't say more with any confidence.
It obviously didn't work. We lost. And some of us around Erin were surprised by how much we lost. So that's definitely something we need to think about. I know this will sound like a convoy pun. It's not. I'm just too tired to pick a different metaphor. We saw this truck coming right at us, and we didn't get out of the way. That's our fault.
Gurney: I don't want to be insensitive. I know that you're tired and that this has been a disappointing week. But I have to ask: Did you see the truck coming early enough? Did you do enough to get out of the way?
Conservative: It hit us, so I guess we didn't. What else can I say? I know in my bones that Erin had a good plan and was really determined to do better. He accepted the Cumming report. He was already implementing changes. We knew there was real anger in the party, and he was trying to make positive changes. Sometimes, though ... look, okay. I'll start again.
Erin is a thoughtful guy. He's not rash. His instinct in a crisis is to be calm, to analyze the situation, and then to respond. That's why he's always had good policies — in the leadership conventions, in the election. He always brought thoughtful policies. People were pleasantly surprised by that, even among his critics in other parties. That's not an accident. That's him. He likes to study stuff and come up with full, smart ideas. I think overall, that's a good thing. I think that's what Canadians would want in a PM. But it slows him down. It slowed the team down. If there was a problem responding with speed, maybe that's a part of it.
Gurney: I want to continue risking being insensitive for a minute. If there is one criticism of O'Toole that seemed to stick, it's that he was indecisive and would flip-flop. I don't think that's necessarily a product of his character or personality. I've written whole columns about how his position in the Conservative party was always precarious, and that was constantly forcing him to make compromises. He was on shifting sands every day he was leader — that was my analysis of him all along. But even in the last few days, when maybe a decisive attempt to save his job would work, he seemed to be trying to find a compromise.
Conservative: Leadership is compromise. Canadians like compromise. It's not a bad thing. I push back on this a bit, though. I think sometimes the problem was more communications than changing positions. We didn't always explain things well. A lot of people on the right have been angry at us lately because they think we're getting softer on our China positions, because they believe that he abandoned the special parliamentary committee on Canada-Chinese relations. That's nonsense. We are as committed to that issue as ever. Erin is personally as committed. But in the current parliamentary session, we had limited resources, and we put them in other places. That was a personnel issue, and it got treated as a philosophical or political change. So that's an example of what I mean. We didn't explain that well. At all.
Gurney: You won't like this question either. You're an O'Toole person. You just lost a big battle — and I am truly sorry for how much that must sting. But I think it's important I ask this: Why did so many of your own caucus vote against your leader? Why the long-running civil war? Why was the final vote not even close? How do you personally make sense of that? Why didn't they like him or accept him?
Conservative: [long pause]
Gurney: I've left you speechless.
Conservative: [Sigh] No, I'm still here. It's just, wow. [Another long pause.] It's a really big question and a really hard question. I probably need more time to think about this. But I don't think it was one thing. If it was, we could have maybe stamped that out, isolated it until it petered out and died. I think a big part of it really was pushing the party to a more moderate place that not everyone wanted to go. Here's one example: We had unanimous consent on the motion to ban conversion therapy, and that was a big win for us. It was a big win for Canadians. And sometimes big wins like that have big costs. I don't think it's all about conversion therapy. I'm not saying that. But that's an example. Erin wanted to move the party places some people within it didn't want to go. And every time we won a battle like that, well, we'd push a few more people over to the group that wanted him gone.
Gurney: What's next for the Conservatives?
Conservative: Oh, God, I don't know. I'm torn between hoping for a good outcome and knowing better. I mean, to answer your question literally, we'll have a leadership race. That'll take between six and nine months, if we stick to the usual plan. And then a new leader will be chosen, and all this will start again? It'll depend on the leader. It's way too soon to guess who that'll be, and that matters. But it's a really bad time. There is this angry populist wave out there right now, and a lot of people in our party are going to find it appealing or maybe think they can exploit it.
That's really dangerous. When will Conservatives learn that what happens during leadership races doesn't stay there? It's not just our partisans watching. Canadians are watching. And it's a very risky moment for us. The public has a long memory. We haven't recovered from the barbaric cultural practices hotline. We all know that. And now we're risking how many more of those disasters people will remember for 10 years?
Gurney: One last question. We've talked about the part of the party that wants to lean populist, that didn't want to do what O'Toole wanted. But there's another part. He lost the vote, but dozens and dozens of MPs voted for him to remain leader, probably because they liked what he was doing and where he was taking the party. How do they feel today?
Conservative:[longest pause yet] Alone. I think they feel very alone. They will wait to see who the new leader is, probably. But I've talked to some of them already. And they are wondering what the hell they're doing here.
This interview has been condensed and edited for length and clarity.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the name of the Cumming report and misspelled Bert Chen's first name. TVO.org regrets the errors.
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