Ever since Bob Rae decided not to pursue the permanent leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada, I've been thinking about what his next move would be.
Of course, Rae still has a job: the MP for Toronto Centre, a job whose mandate doesn't expire until October 2015, when the next federal election takes place.
I've been watching Bob Rae's political career since it began with a byelection victory for the NDP in 1978 that took him to the House of Commons the first time. He won the Ontario NDP leadership in 1982, became opposition leader at Queen's Park in 1987, then shocked the country by becoming the first and so far only NDP premier in Ontario history in 1990.
Rae wasn't done shocking us. He left provincial politics and his party (although he'd probably argue the party left him more than vice versa), and eventually ran for the leadership of the federal Liberals. That was the convention where both he and Michael Ignatieff lost to Stéphane Dion in December 2006.
But Rae hung in there and eventually became the interim leader of the federal Grits, a job that will end with the crowning of a new leader next weekend in Ottawa.
Here's my conclusion: after watching this man for 35 years, I find it hard to believe that he is now finished with public life. I also find it hard to believe that cooling his heels on the back benches of the House of Commons for the third place party is the way Rae wants to end his political career.
Wondering what might come next, I bounced the following idea off Rae several months ago. Did he have any interest in being the mayor of Toronto?
His answer was fascinating: "it's never been on my radar screen," he said.
Of course it hasn't. Rae has always worked in the federal and provincial spheres. But where I come from, that's not a "No."
However, that conversation of several months ago popped back into my head yesterday while attending the Liberals' "showcase" at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre, where the candidates to replace Rae all spoke. Someone tweeted from a bar after the festivities had ended that the "Rae for Mayor of Toronto Campaign" was now officially on. Then someone else tweeted "Rae for Triple Crown of Politics: federal leader, provicial leader, and Mayor of Toronto." At least some folks were now pushing the idea.
Here's what I pointed out to Rae several months ago, when the idea first popped into my head:
- He is a young 64 years old. Lotta gas left in that tank.
- Moderates in Toronto will be looking for a candidate who can defeat the current mayor, and be competitive with NDP MP Olivia Chow, who is widely believed to be ready to quit Parliament for a municipal run. (Chow was a Toronto City councillor before becoming an MP).
- Running for a municipal position after you've served at so-called "senior" levels of government is hardly unprecedented, not even for an Ontario premier. Frank Miller, Ontario's 19th premier, became the chairman of the district of Muskoka council after he left provincial politics in 1986 and by all accounts had a marvelous "third act" in public life. John Rodriguez (Sudbury), Joe Fontana (London), Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan), Gary Carr (Halton Region), and Mike Savage (Halifax) were all former MPs who became mayors/regional chairs after leaving Parliament Hill.
- Those that can't stand the job Rob Ford is doing in Toronto, but are concerned about handing the keys to City Hall over to a New Democrat who's never run anything before (Chow), would have another option in Rae, and a much more competitive option (one could argue) than any other moderate member of city council today, none of whom has half of Rae's profile or experience.
- Rae wouldn't need any time at all getting up to speed on the issues. The biggest issue is transit and infrastructure, and he was the premier who 20 years ago tried to get subways built in Toronto, started the process, only to see Mike Harris' government cancel the projects citing lack of money to complete them. If Rae did become mayor, he could actually finish what he started.
However...
No list of compelling reasons to run is ever complete without looking at the other side of the ledger, which may include:
- Rae may have had enough of public life. Although I'm convinced there's no other private sector job out there that could hold his interest in a way a chief executive's job has and could in politics, he may simply want to slow down, scale back, join some boards, play some golf, and do other things.
- A Rae candidacy would make the NDP in Toronto go bananas. He is still a lightning rod for many New Democrats who think he abandoned the party for the Liberals strictly for reasons of personal political expediency. The campaign would be nasty.
- The biggest obstacle: the love of Rae's life, his wife Arlene Perley Rae, who almost ripped my head off when I put the suggestion to her several months ago.
So there it is: the pros and cons of a Bob Rae mayoral candidacy. The next election isn't until October 2014, so Rae has plenty of time to float some trial balloons and see whether they'll fly.
I have no idea what Rae will do. But I do know this: the next Toronto mayor's race will have less to do with left vs. right and more to do with competence versus incompetence. Rae is coming off of a particularly well-respected run as interim Liberal leader. In addition, the city's moderate forces will be looking for a champion to avoid the more polarizing choice of Ford vs. Chow.
Bob Rae: are you that candidate?
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