Bonnie Crombie is the new leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. Congratulations to her.
In terms of commentary on the race, that’s all I’ve got. It was a low-turnout vote, and I’m not sure why; others probably have theories. Crombie’s people had been confident, or had at least pretended to be confident, that she’d win on the first ballot. But it went down to the wire, and her margin of victory was quite slim; I’m not sure why, and others probably have theories. Those will be interesting to read when they come out. But what’s now concluded doesn’t interest me — what’s coming next, though, does.
That’s because Crombie is taking over at a fascinating time for the Ontario Liberal Party and for this province. It is very possible that Ontario Liberals selected the next premier of this province on the weekend. It’s also possible that Crombie will be, in effect, the last Ontario Liberal leader. It really could go either way.
There are reasons to be optimistic, if you are the Liberals. Doug Ford has proven bafflingly resilient to date, but that’s always the case until it’s not. Many politicians seem to have that kind of deflector shield that’s impervious to scandal until they wake up one day, and it no longer exists. Indeed, as I pondered how Ford could eventually lose, I found myself thinking about Dalton McGuinty, a man who shrugged off many a scandal until one day, he just couldn’t anymore.
The same could easily happen to Ford at some point. And knowing him, if it does happen, it’ll probably be spectacular — and fast. In that event, notwithstanding the small size of the caucus she leads, Crombie could benefit from timing, if nothing else. But that’s probably a bit too gloomy: she is likely to have more than just timing in her favour, at least in terms of leading a party that is in better fiscal and organizational shape than it was during the last election. Ontario Liberals have also probably benefited, in a painful way, from their second drubbing. It has probably disabused them of any notion that the 2018 wipeout their party suffered was some kind of fluke and that the mere passage of time would bring them back into contention. The party — with a new leader, cash to spend, and a suitably adjusted outlook on its own political realities — may well prove more of a challenge for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives than it was in 2022.
And there is another possible reason for Crombie to have some optimism, although it won’t be something many Liberals are eager to discuss openly and in public. The federal Liberal party is struggling. An election held today would likely result in a major loss for it, to the tune of a hundred seats or so. The next election may not come for almost two years, and we live in times too uncertain to allow for solid guesses about what the defining issues will be then. So let us simply acknowledge that the federal Liberals have a tough road ahead in terms of re-election, which is (for them) bad news. But if a defeated Liberal government in Ottawa creates a boom in the number of experienced political staff and fundraisers, and perhaps even a few candidates, suddenly interested in new career opportunities at Queen’s Park — that could be an opportunity for Crombie.
Time will tell. But that’s what a potentially cheerful picture for the Crombie-led Liberals looks like: lots of money, an influx of experienced staff, and a government that will, by then, be as long in the tooth as Justin Trudeau’s federal government is today.
There is a less cheerful picture, of course, and it should also be considered.
Let’s recall the comfortable narrative that the Ontario Liberals could (and in some cases, seemingly did) embrace after 2018: it was an inevitable defeat. They’d been in office too long, they’d accumulated some baggage, and it was time, but after a spell in the penalty box, they’d be back. This was dangerously complacent, I felt, because the future of Liberal parties at the provincial level is far from certain in this country. They seem to remain a viable force in Atlantic Canada; they are gone west of Ontario. In Quebec, after years of seeming invincibility, François Legault and his CAQ party are suddenly taking on water. (If someone could concisely explain to me what the hell is happening there, I’d be grateful.) Even with the CAQ dropping fast, though, all that advantage is accruing to the Parti Québécois; the once-mighty provincial Liberals remain stagnant in the mid-teens.
Ontario is the province where this question hangs in the balance. A revitalized, electorally viable Liberal party here is very possible. It’s equally possible that, even as voters come to tire of Ford, they may find that Marit Stiles and her NDP are more to their liking and reward them. Or, hell, this being Canada, it’s possible that the electorate will sour on Ford but he’ll get re-elected anyway as Stiles and Crombie combine to neatly split the vote.
All these scenarios, whether good and bad for the Liberals, are hypothetical. Predicting tomorrow seems risky enough, let alone three years from now. Crombie is a smart, credible leader, and she may well catch a few breaks. That might be all it takes to make her premier and to put any doubts about the long-term viability of her party to rest for a good long while. But it may not work at all. And if not, we may find out how many more elections the Ontario Liberals can afford to lose before they fade into electoral oblivion.
These questions are likely to be answered on Crombie’s watch. It’s a big job to step into given the circumstances, but it’s hers. Good luck to her, and congratulations once more.
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