It’s budget season, God help us all. You might think of a budget as a financial document, but as any old hack will tell you, it’s first and foremost a political document. You might be able to imagine a world where budgets would be sites of struggle — because we disagree about what ought to be done and how — but without the narrow-minded politicking and cynical marketing that has long been compulsory in partisan politics. Imagine all you like. It’s not happening.
The Ford government is set to deliver its budget on March 26. The Trudeau government will table its budget less than a month later, on April 16. With the federal election due by fall 2025, and as the Liberals continue to tank in the polls, the Tories at Queen’s Park likely sense an opportunity to score some political points — and perhaps some concessions for the province.
In Ottawa, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is promising to “unlock pathways to a good middle-class life for the next generation,” whatever that means. One might wonder why the governing side hasn’t been doing that in the near-decade it’s been in power, but it’d tell you it has been, whether the data backs that up or not. But either way, they’ll come in for fair critique over the extent to which Canadians are hopeful about the future of the economy.
The broader point remains that it’s a sensitive time for the governing Liberals in Ottawa, and Ford’s side knows it. Last week, the premier sent a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau outlining his demands — that is, his requests. Ford wants more money for infrastructure. For the Tories, that means roads and highways, the sorts of projects they tend to privilege. They’ll also be after public-transportation cash, which the province, admittedly, quite desperately needs.
The roads and highways cash request comes after federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault said the feds are done ponying up money to “enlarge the road network.” That means future “large” projects are on the chopping block as the Liberals look toward climate goals that depend in part upon dampening car culture.
Climate targets and environmental concerns, however, drew Ford’s ire, as he is pushing the federal government to skip environmental assessments for the Highway 413 expansion: the premier feels the need for speed. He’s also picking up the baton from the Conservative Party of Canada and its calls for Trudeau to “axe the tax” and kill the federal carbon price — or at least halt a planned increase in April. In short, Ford’s playing the hits.
Folksy as ever, Ford has warned the Liberals they will face an electorate prepared to “annihilate” them. “Wake up, smell the coffee,” Ford said. He didn’t seem to notice that such an annihilation may be coming for Trudeau either way. But for good measure, the premier also wants the carbon tax cancelled for all home heating (the Liberals suspended it in October for home-heating oil).
It's typical for provincial politicians to try to extract as much as they can from the federal government. Such is the nature of Canada’s federation. Overlapping or unclear jurisdiction, asymmetrical federal and provincial powers and responsibilities, the need for policy co-operation, and good old-fashioned partisan self-interest mean the push and pull of federal-provincial politics has always been and will always be such. The federal government is more than happy to spend into provincial jurisdiction when it suits it, and the provinces are just as keen to point the finger at Ottawa or demand more cash whenever they get the chance.
The Ford letter to Trudeau isn’t particularly egregious in its cynicism, but it does read like the Tories are more than aware that the weakened Liberals are a soft target. Either Ford gets some of what he wants, which is good for his political fortunes, or he doesn’t, and he’s able to use the federal government as a punching bag, which is also probably good for his political fortunes.
The PCs are facing plenty of their own challenges, but they remain more popular than you’d expect and will be secure in a majority government until the summer of 2026. Meanwhile, Trudeau is unpopular with Canadians. The Liberals trail the Conservatives consistently by double digits, face an election within 18 months, and are limited by the constraints of their minority government.
The weeks to come, and the budgets that emerge in Ottawa and Toronto, will be a study in political power: how its managed and the consequences of how politicians deploy their scarce resources — or our scarce resources, as the case may be. For now, Ford enjoys an advantage over Trudeau, and he’s keen to exploit it. Whether that dynamic leaves anyone except the PCs better off is doubtful, but if the roles were somehow reversed, it’s unlikely much would change.
Donate