If you listen to Ontario’s three main opposition parties, Doug Ford is the worst premier this province has ever seen: His unprecedented malfeasance on the Greenbelt. His awful first year in power. His not particularly conservative conservatism, which has seen him raise spending more than his predecessor, Kathleen Wynne, in some budgets. His numerous flip flops on a host of issues. The Ontario Science Centre, the “luxury spa” on the waterfront, $10 billion for Highway 413 — the list goes on.
If the New Democrats, Liberals, and Greens are so desperate to get rid of Ford, there’s really quite a simple solution. And we merely have to look to recent legislative elections in France for a successful example of it in action.
France’s elections are different from ours inasmuch as they take place over two rounds. In the first round, everyone gets to play. But the second round is reserved for the top two finishers from the first round. After the first round earlier this month, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party topped the charts, and the other parties were frantic at the possibility that it would therefore win the second round as well.
So they did something historic. They co-operated to ensure they didn’t split the anti-Le Pen vote — and, son of a gun, it worked. Le Pen’s party came third in the second round, prompting the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon to say, “[We] wrested a result that everyone said was impossible in a wonderful leap of civic spirit … The people have avoided the worst.”
Okay, Ontario opposition leaders. Is it time to put your money where your mouths are? If the current premier is really so awful, why don’t you replicate the French experience here in Ontario?
Logistically, it wouldn’t be that difficult to do. Officials from the three opposition parties could meet and come to an agreement on how the parties would contest Ontario’s 124 ridings, whenever the next election takes place.
In the last election, in 2022, the two main opposition parties pretty much tied in vote support: the Liberals took 23.85 per cent of the votes and the New Democrats, 23.74 per cent. Because of the way our first-past-the-post system reflects those votes, the NDP took 31 seats and the Liberals only eight. The Greens won one and have picked up a second in a byelection.
Here’s how I imagine the opposition leaders’ conversation going:
NDP leader Marit Stiles: “Okay, Bonnie and Mike. We’ve got to coordinate our efforts instead of always splitting the anti-Ford vote. So how about we take out our riding maps and divvy up the province.”
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie: “I’m game to try this, Marit. But since we basically tied in support last time around, let’s make sure we divide the ridings fairly.”
Green leader Mike Schreiner: “Well, I can make this easy right off the top. I’m the MPP for Guelph. Aislinn Clancy has Kitchener Centre. And we came second in Parry Sound–Muskoka last time, losing by only 2,000 votes. How about you two agree not to run candidates in those three ridings?
Stiles and Crombie look at each other and nod.
Stiles and Crombie: “Agreed.”
Crombie: “Now, Marit, my Liberals only have nine seats right now, since we picked up another in a byelection. How about you and Mike don’t run candidates in those nine ridings?”
Stiles and Schreiner lock eyes.
Stiles and Schreiner: “Agreed.”
Stiles: “Now, Bonnie, I know this is going to be a tough ask. But there are parts of Ontario where the Liberals just aren’t a factor anymore — southwestern Ontario, for example. Much of northern Ontario. If you could see fit not to run candidates there, and we could set up some PC-NDP fights, I think we could take some of those seats away from the Tories. And, Mike, that goes for you, too. You can’t be running candidates there either. You’re just taking 5 per cent of the votes that could be going to us.”
Crombie: “Marit, I can do that. But, in exchange, you can’t expect me to give you a free pass on all 31 seats you currently hold. I mean, if we hadn’t been so bad over the past two elections, there’s no way you’d have won Toronto–St. Paul’s or Toronto Centre. Those are normally Liberal seats. Can you play ball with me a bit here?”
And so it would go. The three parties could come to an agreement on who gets to contest which riding, ensuring that the anti-Ford vote isn’t split, but instead more likely goes to just one candidate.
If this system had been in place in 2022, how might the results have been different?
Well, the Tories won 83 seats in that election. I’ve checked the results in all 83 of those ridings. They won three with more than 60 per cent of the votes. They also won 23 seats with 50 per cent or more of the votes. So even if all the non-Ford votes went to one candidate, let’s give the PCs those 26 seats.
Here’s where it gets interesting.
If this opposition non-aggression pact had been in place two years ago, the eight Tories who won their seats with less than 40 per cent of the votes in their ridings would surely have lost. That means the 46 seats the Tories won with between 40 and 50 per cent of the votes would have been much more in play. Would Ford have lost all 46 seats? Probably not, but he surely would not have won all 46 of them.
Now, let me say it before you do. Yes, the results of every election are different. No, you can’t necessarily guarantee that Liberals would, under normal circumstances, vote for a New Democrat as their second choice rather than a Conservative, if there were no Liberal option. I’ll state the obvious: this is not a fail-safe alternative that could guarantee a Tory defeat.
But the Ontario PC party was in power for 42 straight years in this province, from 1943 to 1985, in large part because it successfully split the anti-Tory vote, as Ford has now done for two consecutive elections. Not once in that 42-year stretch did the PCs actually garner more than 50 per cent of the total votes cast. They depend on a well-split opposition.
So, opposition parties, the choice is yours. You can excoriate the current government every day of the week and twice on Sundays and continue to split the vote, increasing the likelihood that Ford remains premier. Or you can learn from the French that sometimes desperate times calls for desperate measures — and try something different.
My hunch is, you’ll stick with the current system of fighting each other as much as you’re fighting Ford, both because your competitive instincts demand it and, frankly, because you may dislike each other as much or more than you dislike the premier.
But don’t say I didn’t offer you a decent alternative.
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