Quick, now: who's the most successful Liberal politician in Canada today, who has some national profile?
More and more Liberals are coming to believe that person is the current occupant of the premier of Ontario's office, and not without reason.
Yes, Dalton McGuinty fell one seat short of doing something no Ontario premier had done in more than half a century, namely win back to back to back majority governments. Leslie Frost was the last to accomplish that, back in 1959.
However, McGuinty supporters will quickly remind you that Ontario's 24th first minister is the first Liberal premier in 128 years to win three consecutive elections. That's no minor achievement.
They note that Bob Rae may be doing a fine job both in the House of Commons and across the country trying to rebuild the Liberal Party of Canada. But they also note Rae has promised not to run in the permanent leadership vote, set to take place in 2013, and they remind people that Rae will be 67 years old at the time of the next federal election in 2015.
As Liberals search for alternatives to Rae, they point out Justin Trudeau has taken himself out of the running, and Dominic LeBlanc may be interested but clearly doesn't have profile, experience, or support that Ontario's premier does.
There is another McGuinty --- Dalton's younger brother David, the MP for Ottawa South --- who's interested in the leadership. But again, what he offers doesn't compare to that of his older brother.
So, what would be the plan?
Premier McGuinty would continue to govern Ontario for another year, which would take us to the fall of 2012. He would then step aside to enable the provincial Liberals to reconstitute themselves under a new leader. And he would spend the next six months running for the national job, for which he would (his supporters argue) clearly be the best candidate.
McGuinty is bilingual. He's a proven winner. He has a national profile. He has executive experience. Despite having been in public life since 1990, he's only 56 years old. All the ducks would seem to be lining up perfectly.
Except for one problem.
He doesn't want the job. Or at least, that's what he says. When I bumped into the premier at an event the other day, I asked him about this. He admitted the full court press for the national job had already started, "But I'm loyal to my province," he said. I didn't get a chance to ask the logical follow up question, which was: "well, what about your loyalty to your country?" That question may trail McGuinty in the weeks and months ahead.
However, another significant fly in the ointment is inside the close-knit McGuinty family itself. Provincial politics has always been Dalton McGuinty's baby. Federal politics has always belonged to his brother David. It's hard to imagine, emotional entreaties to the older McGuinty notwithstanding, that Dalton could say to his brother, "I know Ottawa is your bailiwick, but I'm going to run for the national job and derail the dream you've had for the same job." I just cannot imagine that conversation happening.
Furthermore, when asked the other day about it, McGuinty demurred insisting, "I want to stay married."
The other angle in this drama focuses on Bob Rae, who looks more and more confortable in his current job by the day, is getting rave reviews, and many observers think has no intention of being merely an interim leader. As Rae loyalists take over the backroom levers of the Liberal Party of Canada, it would be perfectly natural for them to want to fudge the undertaking Rae gave, preventing him from seeking the permanent leadership. And make no mistake: if they figure out a way around that, Rae will seek the job permanently.
The "McGuinty Goes Federal" scenario is also predicated on the notion that Ontario's premier thinks he's achieved all he can at the provincial level, and wants to swim in different waters. I see no indication of that. After a tough election campaign, he still seems plenty engaged in his current job, and can't imagine trading in the second best political job in the country for one of the worst --- leading the third place party in the House of Commons.
But that won't stop the full court press. All denials to the contrary, methinks this story isn't going away.
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