I’ve never told this story before and never planned to tell it. But since the leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition recently shared it in a public forum, I guess I can, too.
Ten years ago, a Toronto school-board trustee I’d never met before made her debut on The Agenda as a guest and did a pretty solid job. She was articulate, composed, and knowledgeable. After the program, I did what I’ve frequently done with guests over the years — suggested we grab lunch sometime down the road so I could find out whether there were any other issues we should know about for future shows.
Which we did.
During that lunch, I said to her, “I don’t know if you’re thinking about this at all, but I think you could be a future leader of the Ontario NDP. You know your stuff. You’ve got a relatively safe seat you could run in. You should think about it.”
Two years later, she was president of the federal NDP.
Two years after that, she was the MPP for Davenport in the west end of downtown Toronto.
Five years after that, her position in the Ontario NDP was so strong, she had no competition for leader. She was acclaimed.
I thought to myself, “Like a broken watch, I’m right twice a day.” Marit Stiles becoming NDP leader was one of those times.
Stiles shared that story with an audience during a Q&A session we held nearly two weeks ago at the Empire Club in Toronto. You might not think that buttoned-down Bay Street audience would typically welcome an NDP leader. But Stiles is trying to prove she’s a different kind of social democrat — one mainstream Ontario audiences need not fear.
The past six years haven’t been too bad for Ontario New Democrats. They’ve formed the official Opposition twice in a row — that’s never happened before — after both the 2018 and 2022 elections. They’ve also enjoyed the added advantage of seeing their chief rivals for the progressive vote, the Liberals, fail to achieve official-party status both times. The current prime minister’s lack of popularity has been a consistent drag on provincial Liberal fortunes, something New Democrats also don’t mind.
But Stiles is fighting one of the most basic truisms of Ontario political history: the Tories and Liberals almost always win. We are not like other provinces, which regularly introduce new parties and new governments. We’ve had 43 elections in Ontario since Confederation in 1867: the PCs and Liberals have won 41 of them. The NDP’s only victory was 34 years ago. (The United Farmers of Ontario represents the other election, in 1919.)
In our conversation at the Empire Club, Stiles reminded the audience that NDP governments in western Canada have had great success, both at elections and while governing. They have tended to be moderate operations and to have records as good as or superior to those of the other parties when it comes to balancing the books.
But for whatever reason, when the public wants to change governments in Ontario, they tend to think only of two potential options.
“Don’t think that I don’t know that that’s an obstacle for us,” a blunt Stiles told the audience when I pointed this out. “But I think we’re in a moment where we’re facing such enormous challenges in this province that I think this is the moment where we need some bold change … And I truly believe we’re the only party that can defeat this government.”
The NDP’s best chances for victory since 1990 have surely come in the past two general elections. With the Liberal vote collapsing in 2018, the NDP was actually in first place in the polls for a brief period of that campaign. But even with the bombastic populism of then-not-much-liked Doug Ford as Tory leader, the PC brand was strong enough to carry the day. Ford became Ontario’s 26th premier, and the NDP had to settle for second place.
In 2022, again with Liberal fortunes in the dumper and with a well-known and well-liked leader going into her fourth campaign (Andrea Horwath), the NDP could still manage only a second-place finish.
Could things be different next time, whenever that is? Between elections, observers look for numerous ways to keep score, and, by one metric, the NDP is doing extremely well. In the just-completed third quarter of 2024, the party raised more than $1.2 million from more than 26,000 donors. The party says that’s the highest-ever third-quarter fundraising total (outside an election year) and represents the fifth consecutive online-fundraising record. With the average donation at less than $50, the party is clearly resonating with a lot of everyday Ontarians.
However, by other metrics, the NDP still has its issues. The party may be in second place in the legislature in terms of the seat count, but in all of the recent polling, it’s returned to its traditional third-place position, the favourite of only one out of every five voters. We saw that pattern re-establish itself in last month’s Bay of Quinte byelection, when it was the Liberals who put a scare into the victorious Tory candidate, coming second by just five percentage points. The NDP trailed the PC victor by 15 points, a disappointing outcome.
Leading with Stiles: Ontario’s future reimagined | September 26, 2024
“I don’t like to lose, just so we’re all clear,” Stiles told the audience. “There’s lessons we have to learn. But this is not a riding where we’ve ever had a particularly strong presence.”
That is true. In fact, the NDP has never won this area, under either its current boundaries or different ones by different names. Since both Stiles and the new Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie both want Ford defeated, would the NDP chief entertain any strategic co-operation with the Grits before the next election?
Apparently not.
“I am running to form a majority government in the province of Ontario,” Stiles said to applause. “I feel it in my bones that we can do it.”
And, yet, Ford’s Tories have been in first place in the polls for more than six straight years. Stiles attributes that to voters giving the premier the benefit of the doubt after the difficulties of managing the pandemic. “But when people’s attention is focused in a general election, it’ll be very clear that this government isn’t serving their needs.”
Stiles then makes her list: An inadequate health-care system with emergency rooms closing and 2.5 million Ontarians without a family doctor. The housing crisis. The affordability crisis. Past Greenbelt malfeasance. Spending $225 million to get out of an agreement with the major brewers one year early. The mistreatment of the Ontario Science Centre.
With the house returning for its fall sitting in less than two weeks, Stiles will once again get a place of prominence during question period and on the evening news. Can she parlay that into creating doubts about the government’s competence? Can she convince those that have never considered the NDP to give her party a look?
Stay tuned.
Donate