Having won the big fight, or at any rate seemingly won it, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow can afford to back off a little bit. And she seems to be doing exactly that.
The mayor, who will be announcing details of her proposed budget later on Thursday afternoon before it goes to council in two weeks, has been putting real political pressure on the federal government. I’ve written about her tactics, with amused approval, already. Chow had announced a 10.5 per cent property-tax hike for Toronto ratepayers, which she said was necessary to make up for years of under-taxing and under-investment, combined with some of the economic shocks the city sustained thanks to the pandemic. But she also threatened an additional 6 per cent “Federal Impact Levy” if the federal government did not come up with a quarter-billion bucks a year to offset the service costs Toronto incurs by caring for a large number of refugees and migrants, whose presence in the city is largely a product of federal policy decisions.
It’s an interesting issue. Jurisdictionally, Toronto is responsible for these costs. But both morally and politically, the city has a completely solid argument when it insists that the feds ought to be picking up at least some of the bill, as federal policy is, in large part, driving the costs. It’s one of those quirks of our system of federalism: being seen to be generous with refugees and migrants suits the federal government because of its overall progressive brand and, no doubt, also because it hopes to persuade specific diaspora communities to throw a few votes and donations the Liberals’ way.
But the federal generosity is all upside for them; it’s the provinces and cities that end up picking up the tab. Chow was prepared to play hardball with the feds, and the Toronto Liberal caucus was furious. They’ve spent weeks attacking Chow both on and off the record and calling her criticisms unfair. This week, the fed caved — announcing $362 million for both Quebec and Ontario communities to offset costs. As strategist Scott Reid delightfully quipped Wednesday while we were on a radio panel together, “They went eyeball to eyeball, and the other guy just blinked.”
(That’s both a useful summation of how Chow took on the feds and won and also a great historical reference. Look it up if you don’t recognize it. You won’t regret it.)
But back to the matter at hand. Of the funds announced Wednesday, $100 million is going to Quebec, which means that the rest will be divided up among different Ontario jurisdictions. Chow will likely get less than her desired quarter-billion bucks.
But she would’ve expected that. I really don’t know what the “true” number that the feds ought to send to Toronto would be. The feds have as much reason to lowball it as Chow has to exaggerate it. Suffice it to say, whatever the precise figure is or ought to be, the feds read the political tea leaves, looked at their own brutal polling numbers, which reveal that Toronto is about their last remaining bastion of electoral strength (and even it is showing signs of buckling), and decided to give in to a bit of old-fashioned political extortion.
Let’s be clear. This is definitely a mugging. But sometimes, when you’re being mugged, the smart thing to do is to hand over the wallet. This seems to be the conclusion the feds have arrived at, and it’s certainly the one I would’ve advised them to choose.
And now that she’s got the wallet, Chow is already starting to back off from some of her more extreme positions. For one thing, the property-tax hike Torontonians will be forced to swallow won’t be the reported 10.5 per cent, but 9.5 per cent. That’s not a huge difference, but it brings it back down under the dreaded “double digit” mark. Chow has also said she’s looking for a way to structure the property-tax hikes so that the costs do not land on renters, who will eat the hike as landlords pass through the added expense. Figuring out a way to do that is probably going to be tricky, and it will obviously have fiscal implications, but the political appeal for Chow is obvious. The city’s renters are already struggling, in many cases, and no doubt more than a few of them voted for Chow and may be open to voting for her again in the future — something I’m sure the mayor has considered.
So, yeah. Chow came in strong and brash and then began the inevitable process of settling. She will probably get fewer bucks from the feds than she was demanding. She’s already slightly dropped her property-tax hike and may have to take even less to protect renters. This is going to mean some added work for Chow and budget chief Shelley Carroll. The city is still in pretty bleak fiscal straits, and every lost dollar will need to be made up somewhere.
That’s just politics. Chow has won the big fight — and decisively. She’s going to have to spend some time mopping up the details, but it was ever thus. That may actually prove the harder part, but, again, that has always been so.
As for me, beyond expressing my admiration for how Chow has handled the politics of this all, I’d like to make one simple request as a Toronto resident. To whatever extent the city has money left over after all the most pressing, life-and-death priorities are handled, can we please fix the roads and sidewalks? My car and my oft-sprained ankles would be grateful. Besides, it’s getting embarrassing to explain when guests visit from out of town and notice the state of things. It’s not the most important thing, I know, but it would make a big difference. And there’s simply no excuse for a city this rich to be so visibly broken down.
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