Doug Ford should not spend a lot of time and energy checking into the feasibility of recreating Boston’s Big Dig in a tunnel network that would span the width of the GTA under Highway 401.
It honestly feels kind of weird having to say this, but here we are. Don’t do that, Doug. Don’t talk about it. Don’t think about it. It’s silly. Everyone knows it’s silly. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
You know, the funny thing is, I was actually planning on defending the Ford government today. On a generally related matter, too. The Toronto Star recently ran a lengthy article about the proposed alignment for the Line 1 subway extension, generally under Yonge Street, reaching into Richmond Hill. This is something I have a long interest in. I grew up in exactly the part of Richmond Hill where this subway could, in theory, end up terminating. Once upon a time, the specific route that was chosen really would’ve made a big difference to me. It could’ve been the difference between having a station within walking distance or not. So I read the Star article with interest.
It generated a lot of criticism of the Ford government because the route alignment that was selected will likely benefit friendly real-estate developers. This has obvious echoes of the Greenbelt scandal, and the Ford government has done absolutely nothing to earn any benefit of the doubt on that file. But as I read the article, I actually found myself feeling somewhat sympathetic to the decision the government has reached. There is no alignment for the Yonge extension that is not going to benefit someone via a huge boost in property values. And that boost can either go into existing neighborhoods of single detached family homes — exactly the kind of area I grew up in — or go into new areas where we could develop transit-oriented communities with much higher density. I don’t think it’s bad to pick the latter.
Also, one of the criticisms of the Ford plan is that the proposed alignment for the Yonge-line extension is calculated to provide the fewest benefits in terms of new riders choosing transit and of total commuting minutes saved. But it’s also the cheapest option. There is nothing inherently wrong with selecting an option that provides somewhat less service for somewhat less money. It’s not necessarily the right thing to do, but it is at least a conversation that we should have. Bang for buck and value for any given investment should be things we consider.
So, yeah, I was here to defend Ford on the basis of his government having made a defensible decision, one that was rational in how it wanted to spend money and realistic about the benefits we would receive and the trade-offs that would entail.
And then Wednesday’s news conference happened.
Speaking to reporters, Ford said his government was going to begin looking into the feasibility of digging a tunnel for commuters — vehicular traffic and mass transit — that would run from Brampton in the west to Markham and Scarborough in the east. This would apparently be under the 401 or on a route generally similar to it. I’m being vague with all the details above because we honestly don’t know much more than that. Ford made this announcement in the context of steadily worsening gridlock in the GTA.
And that’s a real problem. It truly is. I’ve written about it a lot. But allow me to go on the record here and suggest I do not think that a much bigger version of Boston’s Big Dig — Bigger Dig? — is a good idea.
The Big Dig cost billions (USD $8 billion, in 2006 dollars, which would be closer to USD$12 billion today) and took more than 15 years to complete. For that investment, Boston was able to bury previously surface expressways covering a span of about 12 kilometres, freeing up ground at the surface level for development. I’ve driven through the Big Dig. It’s fantastic. And I love what Boston did with the land that was freed up at street level.
But I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that any attempt to do this in Toronto would be a fiasco. Just consider the numbers above. And then consider the fact that Ford’s proposed 401 tunnel would be vastly larger than that — roughly five times larger. So going with the broadest possible estimates here: Ford seemingly wants to do something that’s five times as big as what cost Boston USD$12 billion in today’s dollars to do.
So that’s 12 times five: $60 billion American. That would be $80 billion Canadian today.
Anyone else starting to see the issue here? Now I get that the proposed project wouldn’t necessarily have to replicate the Big Dig’s format and engineering conditions, but just as a place to start, it’s probably not encouraging that my immediate math came up with a figure that large.
Let’s also consider our recent track record building tunnels to move people around. It would be way more credible for Ford to come out and suggest a gargantuan mega-project to sink transportation infrastructure underground if, say, Ontario was good at mega-projects to sink transportation infrastructure underground. Alas, friends, we are not. If the enormous concrete tube a stone’s throw from my house were actually a functional LRT line, instead of, well, an enormous concrete tube, I’d probably be more receptive. So get back to me once the Crosstown is running and we know with some certainty what the hell went wrong with that entire project. Until then, the Ford government simply does not have any credibility on these kinds of projects.
I’m going to confess something to you here. I don’t think Ford is actually going to do anything but the most token prodding around in terms of what it would cost to build a big tunnel running entirely across the Greater Toronto Area. This entire thing screams of deliberate distraction. I don’t really know from what in particular. And I never entirely rule out the possibility that Ford is, for his own amusement, just needling reporters. But in a province and especially in a city with such massive infrastructure deficits, the notion that we would have a single engineer or bureaucrat tinkering with proposals to tunnel under the 401 is so absurd I almost have to assume it’s being floated only to dazzle our eyes away from something else.
So let’s end where we began. Doug Ford should not spend any time focusing on building a tunnel under the 401. He should complete the existing transit projects that have already been identified as necessary to sustain Toronto’s current size. He should build out the hospitals, long-term-care homes, and housing projects that this province depends on to begin making up lost ground in our standard of living and quality of life. He should focus on law and order, education, and all the things his government might theoretically have the ability to pull off. Because a tunnel under the 401? That’s a joke. And I simply refuse to accept he doesn’t know that.
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