You can tell it’s late summer when political stories pop up in the media that defy logic and are based purely on speculation. A great recent example of this is the current media rumour about Premier Doug Ford and the next election. Ford has ruled out calling one in 2024, but some say he’s set to send Ontarians back to the polls next spring — more than a year ahead of the set date of June 2026.
To be fair, there is a valid basis for this conjecture. But those who know Ford best would dismiss it for three big reasons.
First, it is worth reminding everyone that democracy is fundamentally about winning power through an election in order to implement policies and reforms through legislation and government actions that are different from those proposed by the other political parties. Canada’s parliamentary democracy is not traditionally based on brokered consensus but rather on the implementation of a clear platform of ideas by an elected government given a mandate via an election. Of course, this is true only if one party garners a majority of seats on election night — as Ford has done each time he has gone to the polls.
With a majority, governments then have a constitutional mandate for five years, although we normally have elections on average every four years. If a majority is not achieved, the minority government governs only as long as it can cobble together enough votes to avoid defeat in Parliament, as is the case with the current federal Liberal government.
A recent wrinkle in Canada is that some governments, including Ontario’s, adopted “set election date” laws. This legislation was meant to limit the “gamesmanship” government leaders have historically enjoyed in calling an election when it best suited their own political party for purely self-interested political reasons. But in Ontario (and Canada), this legislation — while setting the date in theory in a calendar — is neither binding nor does it prohibit the government leader from calling an election at an earlier time.
Currently, Ford has a wide margin of support over the other political leaders, and some of those most interested in his maintaining power for a longer period have apparently advocated for an early election call to take advantage of this strong current support
The fear among some of his advisers is that, with a huge win by the federal Conservatives expected in the upcoming federal election, Ontario will abandon the Ford PCs and choose a different political party for “balance.” The notion that Ontario chooses different parties to govern at the two different levels of government as a fundamental dynamic is spurious at best. History may at first blush suggest this is the case. But a review of each election federally and provincially for the past two decades shows that the changes in governing party at either level happened for compelling and totally different reasons. Simply switching brands for “balance” has never been a major factor with voters at either level.
Ford likely knows this is a faulty premise. Further, he is not afraid that his government will be rejected for such a reason. He’s undoubtedly looking forward to the next election —and a chance to win a third and historic majority government.
Elections, political parties, and leaders are not merely about winning elections. They’re also about governing. Ford will be running for a third mandate because he has more to accomplish and wants to ensure his successes won’t be quickly erased as a result of an election upset. That’s exactly what happened the last time an Ontario premier called an early election. Shocking defeat. Ask former Premier David Peterson about that.
Sticking to the current June 2026 election date and choosing not to go to the polls a year or more early means the premier can focus on “getting the job done.” His current government has a strong mandate and much to do. To call an election prematurely without a pressing need would be to give the opposition parties what they currently lack: an issue that could unite the voters into sending the premier a message with a reduced majority, if not an outright defeat. That issue itself could be the last straw for some voters or simply something to exercise their collective grumpiness with — a feeling that electorates have had around the Western world had since the COVID lockdowns.
And the risk isn’t worth it. In 1985, Bob Rae’s NDP signed an accord with Petersen’s Liberals; one MPP short of a majority could likewise see the opposition parties unite to deny Ford his third government. Why would the premier gamble on a new mandate while cutting his current one short by 25 per cent?
The most compelling reason to expect this current government to stay put for its whole term, in my opinion, involves Ford’s legacy. It will not be based on the number of days in power but the number of subways, homes, and roads built and the ways that services have improved, taxes have been reduced, and quality of life enhanced.
You don’t get these outcomes by playing games with early election dates.
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