For those of us of a certain age, mention the word “Pierre” when referring to a politician, and for the past five decades, the next word you thought of was “Trudeau.”
Maybe not anymore.
Everybody seemed to know that Pierre Poilievre was going to win the Conservative leadership election held in Ottawa this past weekend. But the massive size of his victory — 68 per cent of the points on the first and only ballot — seemed to take everyone by surprise. Pundits who have been looking for deep splits in the Conservative party now have considerable evidence that those splits just aren’t there. This is Poilievre’s party. And it is his brand of conservatism that has carried the day.
Pierre Poilievre won 68 per cent of the points on the first and only ballot. (Steve Paikin)
It's tempting to dismiss Poilievre’s conservatism as Trump-lite, angry, grievance-based. As being about railing against the “elite gatekeepers” and giving succour to the World Economic Forum-hating, conspiracy-spreading types. Fareed Khan, founder of Canadians United Against Hate, put out a statement after Poilievre’s victory, saying: “Poilievre’s election as Conservative leader is a disaster in waiting for Canada. It poses a threat to Canada’s political stability because it means that Conservative Party voters have decided to shift the party to the extreme right the same way that the Republican Party in the US did with Donald Trump, and we saw how that turned out.”
More moderate, “common sense Tories” (as Tasha Kheiriddin calls them in her new book, The Right Path) have told Poilievre he can’t become prime minister by playing footsie with the convoy crowd.
Maybe. But to see Poilievre’s growth — both personally and as a campaigner — over the past many months is to see one of the truly fascinating developments in Canadian politics of the past decade.
Poilievre seems to have created the movement that Maxime Bernier thought he could put together when he won 49.05 per cent of the points at the 2017 leadership election. After failing to win that prize, Bernier quit the CPC and set up his own People’s Party; he hasn’t come close to winning a seat since.
Leadership candidate Jean Charest with his wife, Michèle Dionne. (Steve Paikin)
Erin O’Toole purported to represent “convoy conservatives” (as Kheiriddin describes them) at the 2020 leadership election, taking 57 per cent of the points at that contest. But O’Toole’s attempt to move to the middle to make common-sense conservatives part of a bigger coalition failed when he lost the federal election a year ago.
Now, Poilievre is the undisputed champion of convoy conservatives, and he has no apparent interest in moderating his policies to make the big blue tent even bigger. The once quippy, often annoying interrogator of Liberal cabinet ministers at committee hearings has now become someone who can give voice to the anger and aspirations of many Canadians who feel the current Liberal government has forgotten them.
Yes, Poilievre still causes deep concern in plenty of Canadians, as Khan’s quote suggests. But consider that money tends to follow potential in politics, and Poilievre has just completed the most successful leadership fundraising effort ever in Canadian history. In fact, he raised well more than twice as much as Justin Trudeau did for the Liberal leadership campaign nine years ago.
I don’t know whether you can win leadership or general elections by making good videos, but Poilievre is giving it a shot. In a TikTok age, his pieces-to-camera are simple, yet effective, and usually make a strong point about some policy disagreement with the government.
His best video landed a few days ago: with slick production values and an emotional narrative arc, Poilievre manages to hit a trifecta of sorts. He portrays himself as a politician with a sympathetic ear who’s able to feel people’s pain, à la Bill Clinton. Even though he’s hardly got matinee-idol good looks, he certainly received the rock-star treatment from the huge crowds he spoke to. And there is even a brief shot of him giving his wife, Anaida, a piggyback ride after an evening when she’d presumably had enough of walking in high heels. These videos are some of the best and most effective Canadian politics has ever seen.
Agenda segment, September 9, 2022: What does it mean to be Conservative?
Critics can easily label Poilievre a hypocrite for railing against career politicians — that’s the only job he’s had since he was 25. (He’s 43 now.) And he’s shown little interest in reaching out to the more moderate parts of the Conservative coalition, which he may need if he’s to change party fortunes in the MTV — Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver — where the CPC has virtually no seats.
His victory sets up one of the great showdowns in Canadian electoral history. Both he and Prime Minister Trudeau have shown themselves to be superb campaigners, great on the stump and naturals at working crowds. The next campaign, whenever it happens, should be one of the most competitive showdowns ever.
But here’s something Poilievre’s critics need to know: governments aren’t elected — they’re defeated. Yes, Trudeau won a majority his first time out of the gate, in 2015. But his last two victories were won with the smallest percentage of the total vote ever. If a slightly bigger chunk of the Canadian electorate has had enough of his government by the time of the next election, Poilievre won’t have to be great to become prime minister. He'll just need a pulse. As he proved in Ottawa last weekend, he’s got that and much more.