We can’t keep going like this. Earlier this week, the federal Liberals lost the Toronto–St.Paul’s byelection, dropping a seat they’ve held since 1993. Now we find ourselves in the midst of another round of shallow dives into what it all means, who should do what and when, and what it all means for the future of the country. It’s familiar ground, and it’s perhaps inevitable we’d tread it again, but it’s all become a bit much.
Ahead of the vote in Toronto, there was plenty of prognosticating and speculation about who’d win and what it would mean. The Liberals were either expected to hold the seat (narrowly) or not. The contest was a referendum on the government or a sideshow — one seat out of 338. A win could breathe new life into a gasping government; a loss would spell doom, and Justin Trudeau would have to go, surely.
As I wrote on X, I've reached the point where I’m torn between not wanting an early election — preferring that the Liberals continue to govern (and that the Conservatives don’t) and do what they can with the time they have left — and desperately preferring to get it out of the way so we can focus up.
Waiting until fall 2025 to issue the writs lets us focus on the many challenges we face: the economy (jobs, inflation, wage growth), climate change, building back some bits of our welfare state with pharmacare, preparing for a possible return of Donald Trump in the United States, and lots more.
I use the word “us” deliberately and carefully. Speculation about the election/future of Trudeau captures the media, observers and commentators, citizens, politicians, industry, and just about everyone even modestly tuned in to the news of the day. The more we focus on that, the less we focus on governance and policy. It’s salt/fat/sugar/processed junk food versus the healthy stuff we’re meant to eat. Vegetables, lean protein, etc. You get the idea.
All of this is beyond distracting. There’s an opportunity cost to trying to do too many things at once. As much as we’d like to think we can walk and chew gum at the same time, there’s only so much attention to go around, and the next election is already shaping our politics for the worse. Every party is in election mode: more cynical, more pandering, getting ready to hit doorsteps and skip debates rather than leaning into policy solutions to pressing issues (to the extent that we ever lean into such quaint things).
I should confess a bit of self-interest here, not that it should detract from the substantive argument about the good of the country. The prospect of another year or so of reading speculative pieces about Trudeau’s future and the possibility of an early election is utterly dreadful. I don’t want to read any more of it, and I don’t want to write any more of it, at least beyond this hopefully final plea to get on with it — whether “it” is an election or a return to focusing primarily on policy and governance as much as we can.
If the Liberals decide to go to the polls now, they’ll face almost certain defeat, which presumably is a strike against their calling an early election. They’re probably hoping Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have peaked too soon — flown too high, too close to the sun. They’re betting that the more Canadians get to know the Conservative leader, the less they’ll like him. That may be true to an extent, but the numbers have told the same story for a long time now: the Liberals are way down, and the Conservatives are way up.
The country’s “natural governing party” may also be hoping it can turn things around in the next 18 months. On social media Tuesday, Toronto–St.Paul’s Liberal candidate Leslie Church said her defeat was “a beginning, not an end” and suggested she’d be back as the candidate after hearing the messages voters sent “loud and clear.” Presumably, every Liberal has heard that message loud and clear by now. And, yet, here we are.
The best case is that now that the byelection is over, we can all turn to focus on doing the work that needs to be done before the next time we head to the polls to decide who’ll do the work that needs to be done. Trudeau says he’s staying. We could take him at his word. The election is set for fall 2025. We could believe it’ll happen then. We could then sneak in a little time this summer to head outside and touch grass. Wouldn’t that be nice? Some grass? Some vitamin D?
But we can’t have nice things. We thus risk ending up in the worst of all worlds, stuck between an election and business as usual — muddling through and half-assing each — dealing with a dysfunctional Parliament prone to shenanigans, constant electioneering, endless speculation, rising toxicity, and growing widespread fatigue. That’s not my first choice, but it’s the one I suspect we’ll end up making.
I desperately hope that I’m wrong, just like all those who called the byelection last night early before heading to bed and waking up to an embarrassing surprise, the consequences of which we’ll have to live with — for now at least.