Having covered politics in this province and country for more than 40 years, I’ve learned one thing for sure: Byelections are hugely important harbingers of a government’s relationship with the electorate.
Or they mean nothing at all.
The trick, of course, is to figure out which truism is in effect and at what time.
For example, 11 months ago, Ontario had two byelections — in Scarborough–Guildwood and Kanata–Carleton — and the third-place Liberals won them both. It was a particularly shocking outcome in the eastern Ontario riding because the Liberals took what was thought to be one of the safest Progressive Conservative seats away from the government. You should have heard the predictions about how much trouble Premier Doug Ford was in and how the Liberals were on the way up.
But then a month ago, there were two more byelections, including one in Milton, where the Tory candidate had won by only 1,700 votes in the last general election. The Liberals were excited at the possibility of turning yet another blue seat red. But then the PCs won it by 2,400 votes (on a smaller turnout), and suddenly, the Liberal juggernaut was naught, and the premier seemed pretty pleased with things.
I raise all of this because there’s a federal byelection coming up on June 24 — one week from today — that has generated similar apocalyptic storylines. Toronto–St. Paul’s has been vacant ever since former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett was appointed to become Canada’s ambassador to Denmark. The riding (under its current boundaries) has been one of the most loyal in the country to the Liberals. It’s been red for 31 straight years, and Bennett held it herself for 26 years, usually with 50 per cent of the votes. Before that, it almost always flipped back and forth between the Liberals and Tories, depending on who won the general election, but that was before the boundaries were changed, making it a much more Liberal-friendly riding. (The New Democratic Party traditionally garners only 10 to 20 per cent of the votes and has never come close to winning there.)
But the Liberals are in a heap of trouble these days, under attack on a multitude of fronts and with a leader in Justin Trudeau who, at the moment, is at the nadir of his personal popularity. In addition, Toronto–St. Paul’s is one of the few ridings in Canada where, at 15 per cent, the Jewish vote is actually significant enough to affect the outcome. And rightly or wrongly, much of the Jewish community feels Trudeau and his ministers haven’t been nearly supportive enough of Israel since the October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas.
In other words, the scene is set for a classic “let’s stick it to the government” moment, and voters can “send Trudeau a message” essentially with impunity, since the government’s future survival doesn’t depend on winning this byelection.
Not surprisingly, some observers have suggested that, if the Liberals can’t hold this safest of safe seats, it would represent the most powerful signal yet that Trudeau should pack it in. During last month’s byelection in Milton, multiple sources told me the prime minister’s unpopularity was a constant feature at the doorstep, despite the fact that it was a provincial byelection.
Liberal candidate Leslie Church evidently gets that, given that the PM’s name is barely visible on her lawn signs and doesn’t appear at all on her literature (at least, not the piece that was dropped in my mailbox — yes, I am a Toronto–St. Paul’s resident).
In fact, Church’s literature features an unflattering picture of former Ontario premier Mike Harris, who has been out of office for more than two decades, and the admonition to “Send Pierre Poilievre a Message: We Won’t Go Backward.”
For their part, the Conservatives are running candidate Don Stewart, a former Bay Street guy at BMO and Morgan Stanley who now works for the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. His website assures everyone that Poilievre will “fight for families in Toronto–St. Paul’s.”
Leslie Church sign in the Toronto–St. Paul’s riding (Steve Paikin); Don Stewart flyer in mailbox. (Facebook)
Those of us who make a living watching this stuff love to render verdicts, and if the Conservatives take the seat, there would no doubt be an orgy of columnizing suggesting Trudeau was toast. You can already hear pundits sharpening up their “If he can’t even win St. Paul’s…”
Conversely, if Church, the former chief of staff to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, retains the riding, others will say the PM is safe for now, which may be equally inaccurate.
The fact is, we won’t know for more than a year — maybe more than two years — whether either of those conclusions is true. Having taken three trips to Ottawa over the past few weeks, I can say that the whole town seems obsessed with whether Trudeau will stay on to fight the next election or conclude a fourth consecutive victory is hopeless and leave. The conventional wisdom is that the next election won’t happen until the current confidence and supply agreement with the NDP expires in October 2025, but conventional wisdom is often wrong. Legally, Trudeau doesn’t have to have an election until the winter of 2026 (check your Constitution, people; governments are entitled to serve for five years).
If Trudeau truly wants to hang around to fight the next election, and if that election isn’t until December 2026, do you think losing a byelection two and a half years before that, even in Toronto–St. Paul’s, would convince him to quit?
I don’t either.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated how many years Carolyn Bennett served as MP for Toronto–St. Paul’s. TVO Today regrets the error.
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