Did you see the shocking political news out of British Columbia the other week?
One of the opposition parties, which formed the government in B.C. only seven years ago, has decided not to run any candidates in next month’s provincial election. Even its leader isn’t going to seek a seat.
Actually, it goes beyond that. Some of its better-known candidates are going to run for a different opposition party, and they’ve been welcomed by that party — so anxious is the opposition to prevent the vote-splitting that could return the existing NDP government to power.
It would be interesting to know whether Ontario's opposition parties are paying attention to these developments.
Let me hasten to add two significant caveats: First, I’m not advocating this. I’m merely pointing out that, twice in the past couple of months, other jurisdictions with similar first-past-the-post rules have opted for a novel approach to help avoid an outcome none of the anti-government parties wanted.
Second, let’s stipulate that, even if this approach were picked up by the three Ontario opposition parties, it’s not a guarantee that the Ford government would be defeated. The Tories are, no doubt, a preferred second choice for some voters who currently vote NDP, Liberal, or Green.
So let’s recap recent developments in France and B.C.
Back in July, when France’s opposition parties saw that the far-right party of Marine Le Pen might actually win power, they coordinated their efforts so the anti-Le Pen vote didn’t get split numerous ways. Instead, it consolidated around a different opposition candidate in different parts of the country. The shocking result: Le Pen didn’t win; she came third. Yes, it took the opposition parties until just last week to figure out who should be appointed the next prime minister. But the point is, the initial mission was accomplished.
France set the template, and B.C. has now followed suit. Last month, when it became apparent that too many opposition parties contesting the same seats would split the anti-NDP government vote, potentially allowing that government to be re-elected, the opposition parties got extremely creative. B.C. United — the rebranded and very unpopular Liberal Party, which was in power back in 2017 — took the highly unusual step of standing down. Leader Kevin Falcon held a news conference with Conservative leader John Rustad to announce three unprecedented moves:
- B.C. United would not run candidates in next month’s election.
- B.C. United would suspend all operations for the foreseeable future.
- The Conservatives and B.C. United would now begin to figure out which existing B.C. United MLAs and candidates would run for the Conservatives going forward.
It is a degree of opposition co-operation rarely, if ever, seen before in Canadian politics. And it’s happening because the opposition is determined to avoid splitting the anti-government vote and to defeat the NDP.
It made me wonder: Would the three progressive opposition parties in Ontario ever consider similar out-of-the-box thinking? About six weeks ago, I wrote a column laying out a fictitious but theoretically plausible meeting among the leaders of Ontario’s New Democrats, Liberals, and Greens. I described a scenario in which the three leaders agreed to divvy up Ontario’s 124 ridings to create one-on-one races between the Progressive Conservative candidate and the opposition candidate with the best chance to win. The idea was, why split the anti-Doug Ford vote three ways if you can encourage it to coalesce around only one candidate?
In those ridings where the PCs win with less than 40 per cent of the votes — and there are eight of them — the Tories would surely lose those seats. Then there are 46 seats the PCs won with between 40 and 50 per cent of the votes. Those contests would surely become much more competitive.
I’ve decided to write about this kind of strategizing again because it sure looks like the opposition parties are more interested in fighting one another to be the dominant anti-Ford choice, rather than co-operating to improve the odds of defeating Ford.
And, in case we needed reminding about how much New Democrats and Liberals often despise each other more than they do Conservatives, just look at the rhetoric federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been offering over the past few days. For the past year, he’s been content not only to work with Justin Trudeau, but also to ensure the survival of the Liberal government through the supply-and-confidence agreement. Last Thursday, Singh suddenly (but not opportunistically, I’m sure) concluded that the Liberals were just as bad as the Conservatives when it came to being corporate toadies. That’s quite a volte-face, and Canadians will have to decide for themselves whether that sudden change of opinion passes the stink test.
So, again, I ask: How serious are you Ontario New Democrats, Liberals, and Greens about getting rid of the current provincial government, which won re-election two years ago with only 41 per cent of votes? In other words, four in 10 voters wanted the PCs to win, but six in 10 voters didn’t. Are you serious enough to consider some truly unprecedented thinking?
Sure doesn’t look like it. Sure looks like the politics of insignificant differences among the three of you will continue to dominate your thinking. In which case, you’ll have no one to blame but yourselves if Ford saunters to a third consecutive majority government next spring — something that looks increasingly likely with every passing day.
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