A year and a half ago, there was much grumbling about Justin Trudeau’s leadership, and, coincidentally, there was a byelection in Mississauga–Lakeshore. Pundits thought, here’s a great opportunity for the electorate to stick it to the prime minister and show how unhappy they are with him.
But they didn’t.
Under Charles Sousa’s candidacy, the Liberals took more than 51 per cent of the vote, and Trudeau critics had to admit they might have overestimated the antipathy to the PM.
Those critics are flying high today.
Last night in Toronto–St. Paul’s — a seat historically far more loyal to the Liberals than is Sousa’s in Mississauga — Team Trudeau’s candidate, Leslie Church, lost in a shocking upset to the Conservatives’ Don Stewart.
You can make all the excuses for the government you like. Yes, it’s only a byelection. Yes, it’s a tailor-made opportunity to kick the PM. Yes, the Jewish vote, at 15 per cent, is disproportionately higher than in other ridings, and many in the Jewish community haven’t been happy with what they believe is the PM’s lack of support for Israel.
But even with all of that, there is simply no excuse for the Liberals losing one of the party’s safest seats in the country. Ever since the riding’s boundaries were redrawn in 1993 to make it much more Liberal-friendly, Toronto–St. Paul’s has only ever voted for the red team. And even when the Liberals were getting thrashed in general elections in 2006, 2008, and 2011, T-SP remained loyal to Liberal MPs Barry Campbell (1993-97) and Carolyn Bennett (1997-2024), and the results were never close.
Toronto–St. Paul’s was a bellwether riding before 1993. It was evenly divided between homeowners and renters and, as a result, tended to vote for the party that formed government. But with the new boundaries came a different split: far more tenants (perhaps 65 per cent of constituents) and far fewer homeowners. Thus, a wasteland for Conservatives.
Byelections are notorious for poor turnout, and, yet, 44 per cent of eligible voters exercised their franchise — a much higher percentage than normal. Clearly, Liberals were unmotivated to vote, while Conservatives felt they had a real shot to win a formerly unwinnable seat. In the end, the Tories took it by only 590 votes. If you assume 300 polling stations, that’s fewer than two votes per poll. Perhaps Stewart shouldn’t get too comfortable in his new digs on Parliament Hill — but, for now, he’s the new member of Parliament.
Of course, the big question now is whether these results will prompt Trudeau to reconsider his future. He has consistently said he will lead his troops into the next general election, whenever that is. And observers say they see no indication of a leader planning an imminent exit.
But if anything could get Trudeau to reconsider his future, it would be last night’s shocker in Toronto. You can imagine the conversations in the Prime Minister’s Office today. The more hopeless among the PM’s advisers will surely be saying, “If we can’t win St. Paul’s, we may as well pack it in. Let’s write you a resignation speech that you can give this summer and give a new leader a chance to be more competitive in the next election.”
Then again, calmer voices in the PMO could just as easily say, “Prime Minister, we gave the electorate a chance to show their unhappiness, and they did. Maybe they’ve got it out of their system now. Maybe if we just keep working at it, we can change our future fortunes. After all, there’s no need for an election for at least 15 months, and if you want to serve the entire five-year term, you can stay in this office for another two and a half years. So let’s not overreact.”
Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall in the PMO today?
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